SAT 12:00 ET|ROSS-ADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
28
7-6
84
61
56
63%
56
89
28.8
-380
-10.0
HOME
10
1-11
74
47
30
50%
0
85
18.8
+300
+10.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALNEB28—PUR10
CLOSED NEB -10.0TOTAL 47.5NEB COVERED · 38 POINTS · UNDER
NEB
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
PUR
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADNEB -10.0
IMPLIED — NEB28.8
IMPLIED — PUR18.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
44FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board. The market board is 52 games because 1 carries no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
NEBRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.0
NEBRASKA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PURRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.2-10.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-24.2
PURDUE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEBRASKAPURDUE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Chubba PurdyPORTAL · NEVADA · 56% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeff SimsPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB44%Omar BrownDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuinton NewsomeDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPhalen SanfordDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB39%Luke ReimerLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick HenrichLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChief BordersPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB36%Anthony GrantRB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE32%Billy Kemp IVWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi ColemanWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus WashingtonWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL26%Nouredin NouiliOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEthan PiperOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL10%Blaise GunnersonDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDylan Raiola · SIGNEE ★5Daniel Kaelin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBlye Hill · PORTAL ★3 · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)Ceyair Wright · PORTAL ★3 · USCMario Buford · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBVincent Shavers Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBDante Dowdell · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONMekhi Nelson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEJahmal Banks · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTIsaiah Neyor · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASCarter Nelson · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMicah Mazzccua · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAGrant Brix · SIGNEE ★4Preston Taumua · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLKeona Davis · SIGNEE ★3Willis McGahee IV · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEBRASKA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
64.088 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
59.371 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
66.383 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB464699052 OF 5 GRADED
RB64646770139 OF 13 GRADED
WR/TE575783542920 OF 29 GRADED
OL666677782319 OF 23 GRADED
DL666685872421 OF 24 GRADED
LB656584791711 OF 17 GRADED
DB494968773220 OF 32 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE84th84
BLUE-CHIP RATIO26%75
RECRUITING CLASS#18 · 8/37 BC87
CLASS RANK TREND+23 · 3 CYCLES96
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 8 IN / 10 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PURRYAN WALTERS2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3737
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2222
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEBMATT RHULE2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEB OFFENSEPUR OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEBRASKA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEPURDUE DEFENSE NEB QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEBRASKA OFFENSEFRONT-7PURDUE DEFENSE NEB OFFENSIVE LINEn=2322% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS19% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEBRASKA OFFENSEFRONT-7PURDUE DEFENSE NEB RUNNING BACKSn=1330% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS18% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555075%18%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454990%14%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEBRASKA OFFENSESECONDARYPURDUE DEFENSE NEB PASS CATCHERSn=2946% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM42% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+18
+63
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.7%
55.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.1%
71.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.8%
4.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEB, ORANGE = PUR) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE