SAT 12:00 ET|VAUGHT-HEMINGWAY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP3|O/U51.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
4-8
83
65
77
36%
11
97
18.3
+500
+15.0
HOME
17
10-3
86
92
99
82%
94
94
33.3
-700
-15.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUK20—MISS17
CLOSED MISS -15.0TOTAL 51.5UK COVERED · 37 POINTS · UNDER
UK
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MISS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADMISS -15.0
IMPLIED — UK18.3
IMPLIED — MISS33.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
55FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 52 games because 1 carries no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
UKRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.5
KENTUCKY won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MISSRECORD UNDERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs11.0-1.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.6
OLE MISS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 11.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKENTUCKYOLE MISS2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Devin LearyDRAFTED · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB87%Ray DavisDRAFTED · 71% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJuTahn McClainRB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRamon JeffersonRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE31%Tayvion RobinsonWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrenden BatesTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB29%Andru PhillipsDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen GeigerPORTAL · TULANE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan RobinsonPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB25%Trevin WallaceDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL22%Jeremy FlaxOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenneth HorseyOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL16%Keaten WadePORTAL · COLORADO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrock Vandagriff · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIACutter Boley · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
RBChip Trayanum · PORTAL ★4 · OHIO STATEJason Patterson · SIGNEE ★3Tovani Mizell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJa'Mori Maclin · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASHardley Gilmore IV · SIGNEE ★4Willie Rodriguez · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBKristian Story · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMADJ Waller Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANTerhyon Nichols · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBJamon Dumas-Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIADevin Smith · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLJalen Farmer · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAGerald Mincey · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEAba Selm · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLBrian Robinson · SIGNEE ★4Jerod Smith II · SIGNEE ★4Jacob Smith · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KENTUCKY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
69.394 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
63.078 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
72.594 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB616188043 OF 4 GRADED
RB7575756065 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE535375692313 OF 23 GRADED
OL434373581815 OF 18 GRADED
DL626276942016 OF 20 GRADED
LB717184701611 OF 16 GRADED
DB505070761816 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE83rd83
BLUE-CHIP RATIO40%86
RECRUITING CLASS#24 · 8/25 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND-10 · 3 CYCLES30
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 12 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MISSLANE KIFFIN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UKMARK STOOPS9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3131
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUK OFFENSEMISS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKENTUCKY OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOLE MISS DEFENSE UK QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS42% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKENTUCKY OFFENSEFRONT-7OLE MISS DEFENSE UK OFFENSIVE LINEn=1842% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS36% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKENTUCKY OFFENSEFRONT-7OLE MISS DEFENSE UK RUNNING BACKSn=640% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.559057%56%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457674%25%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKENTUCKY OFFENSESECONDARYOLE MISS DEFENSE UK PASS CATCHERSn=2331% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS SECONDARYn=27 · 1 ROOM48% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MISS
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+18
−13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MISS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MISS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS65.3%
57.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.0%
64.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.1%
3.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UK, ORANGE = MISS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE