SAT 19:30 ET|BRYANT-DENNY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U50.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
34
11-3
99
95
90
60%
65
81
26.0
-125
-2.0
HOME
41
9-4
100
95
89
60%
43
95
24.0
+105
+2.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUGA34—ALA41
CLOSED UGA -2.0TOTAL 50.0ALA COVERED · 75 POINTS · OVER
UGA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ALA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL50.0
SPREADUGA -2.0
IMPLIED — UGA26.0
IMPLIED — ALA24.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT23 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 23 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 52 games because 1 carries no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
UGARECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.8
GEORGIA won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ALARECORD UNDERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs10.2-1.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.3
ALABAMA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERGEORGIAALABAMA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB86%Daijun EdwardsRB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendall MiltonRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew PaulPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB54%Kamari LassiterDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTykee SmithDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavon BullardDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE50%Brock BowersDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRara ThomasWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus Rosemy-JacksaintWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL35%Zion LogueDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTramel WalthourDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarvin Jones Jr.PORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL27%Sedrick Van PranDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmarius MimsDRAFTED · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB22%Jamon Dumas-JohnsonPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavian Sorey Jr.PORTAL · ARKANSAS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB4%Brock VandagriffPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBTrevor Etienne · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDANate Frazier · SIGNEE ★4Chauncey Bowens · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBEllis Robinson IV · SIGNEE ★5KJ Bolden · SIGNEE ★5Demello Jones · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TELondon Humphreys · PORTAL ★4 · VANDERBILTColbie Young · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMIJaden Reddell · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLXzavier McLeod · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH CAROLINAJoseph Jonah-Ajonye · SIGNEE ★5Nasir Johnson · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMichael Uini · SIGNEE ★4Daniel Calhoun · SIGNEE ★4Marques Easley · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
LBJustin Williams · SIGNEE ★5Chris Cole · SIGNEE ★5Kris Jones · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
QBJaden Rashada · PORTAL ★4 · ARIZONA STATERyan Puglisi · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GEORGIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
59.173 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
58.067 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
59.976 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB75759910072 OF 7 GRADED
RB68689722118 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE767692752915 OF 29 GRADED
OL767693992315 OF 23 GRADED
DL707094911615 OF 16 GRADED
LB767696951411 OF 14 GRADED
DB626295852112 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO76%98
RECRUITING CLASS#1 · 24/32 BC100
CLASS RANK TREND+2 · 3 CYCLES54
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 11 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ALAKALEN DEBOERFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UGAKIRBY SMART9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8080
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUGA OFFENSEALA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGEORGIA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEALABAMA DEFENSE UGA QUARTERBACKSn=70% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGEORGIA OFFENSEFRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE UGA OFFENSIVE LINEn=231% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGEORGIA OFFENSEFRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE UGA RUNNING BACKSn=1178% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556065%94%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455793%44%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGEORGIA OFFENSESECONDARYALABAMA DEFENSE UGA PASS CATCHERSn=2925% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UGA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+3
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UGA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UGA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.1%
66.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS72.0%
69.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
3.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UGA, ORANGE = ALA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE