SAT 19:45 ET|TIGER STADIUM (LA)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP62|O/U64.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
7-6
32
68
41
37%
35
26
21.8
+850
+21.0
HOME
42
9-4
94
90
82
20%
86
98
42.8
-1450
-21.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUSA10—LSU42
CLOSED LSU -21.0TOTAL 64.5LSU COVERED · 52 POINTS · UNDER
USA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
LSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL64.5
SPREADLSU -21.0
IMPLIED — USA21.8
IMPLIED — LSU42.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
64FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 52 games because 1 carries no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
USARECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.4
SOUTH ALABAMA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LSURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.6
LSU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTH ALABAMALSU2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB95%Quentin WilfawnLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey KiserLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames MillerLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB86%Carter BradleyQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDesmond TrotterQB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL66%Reggie SmithOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdrein StricklandOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDontae LucasPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL62%Jamie SheriffDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCharles Coleman IIIDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamall HickbottomDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%La'Damian WebbRB · 45% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarco Lee Jr.RB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB49%Marquise RobinsonPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONYam BanksPORTAL · OLE MISS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen JordanS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE45%Caullin LacyPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon CrumTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLincoln SefcikTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBAakil Washington · PORTAL ★3 · LIBERTYJulien Demby · SIGNEE ★3William Felton IV · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBJared Hollins · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJayden Hobson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEEthan Hubbard · PORTAL ★3 · DUKEMalachi Preciado · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLBryston Dixon · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHTyler Carter · SIGNEE ★3Achilles Woods · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBFluff Bothwell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBLardarius Webb Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEAmarion Fortenberry · SIGNEE ★3Cube Gurley · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEAndrew Bench · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENNoah Toster · PORTAL ★3 · CHOWANJeremy Scott · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTH ALABAMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.07 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.121 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.47 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7272598042 OF 4 GRADED
RB6262616387 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE505026782512 OF 25 GRADED
OL545452721811 OF 18 GRADED
DL343430581713 OF 17 GRADED
LB41412451149 OF 14 GRADED
DB515154522514 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE32nd32
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%12
RECRUITING CLASS#84 · 0/18 BC38
CLASS RANK TREND+20 · 3 CYCLES90
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 15 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LSUBRIAN KELLY3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USAMAJOR APPLEWHITEFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1212
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSA OFFENSELSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSELSU DEFENSE USA QUARTERBACKSn=420% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSEFRONT-7LSU DEFENSE USA OFFENSIVE LINEn=1828% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSEFRONT-7LSU DEFENSE USA RUNNING BACKSn=837% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS28% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557461%44%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457186%67%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSESECONDARYLSU DEFENSE USA PASS CATCHERSn=2522% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM29% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−24
+5
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.8%
44.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.0%
71.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.6%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USA, ORANGE = LSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE