THU 19:00 ET|VETERANS MEMORIAL STADIUM (AL)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/U56.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
38
8-5
28
55
45
39%
93
14
35.3
-625
-14.5
HOME
17
4-8
18
38
34
26%
25
29
20.8
+455
+14.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTXST38—TROY17
CLOSED TXST -14.5TOTAL 56.0TXST COVERED · 55 POINTS · UNDER
TXST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TROY
TXST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TROY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL56.0
SPREADTXST -14.5
IMPLIED — TXST35.3
IMPLIED — TROY20.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
48FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT19 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 19 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
TXSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.8
TEXAS STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TROYRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.4-6.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.4
TROY won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXAS STATETROY2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%TJ FinleyPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 100% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB71%Brian HollowayLB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDan Foster Jr.LB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL45%Jordan RevelsDE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChance MainDE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian RoriePORTAL · DUKE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB41%Donerio DavenportPORTAL · LOUISIANA TECH · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCalvin HillPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahmyl JeterRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL38%Caleb JohnsonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrey WalkerOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB38%Shawn HoltonS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaleb Ford-DementCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE30%Ashtyn HawkinsPORTAL · BAYLOR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSean Shaw Jr.WR · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJordan McCloud · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONJayden de Laura · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONARJ Martinez · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORREFILLED
LBTreylin Payne · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONMax Harris · PORTAL ★3 · UL MONROEJermy Jackson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLTunmise Adeleye · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATESteven Parker · PORTAL ★3 · INCARNATE WORDAlex Merritt · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN MICHIGAN2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBDeion Hankins · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPTorrance Burgess Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPJaylen Jenkins · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEREFILLED
OLMartin Tine · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIATyler Norris · SIGNEE ★3Brock Riker · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJustin Harris · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIFredrick Dotie · SIGNEE ★3Tice Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEBlake Smith · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMAJaden Williams · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEKylen Evans · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.444 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.939 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.841 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB575787063 OF 6 GRADED
RB5757365075 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE515148762511 OF 25 GRADED
OL686862772015 OF 20 GRADED
DL757558591815 OF 18 GRADED
LB515132231210 OF 12 GRADED
DB626241392317 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE28th28
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%41
RECRUITING CLASS#96 · 0/15 BC29
CLASS RANK TREND+37 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 30 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TROYGERAD PARKERFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TXSTG.J. KINNE2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTXST OFFENSETROY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETROY DEFENSE TXST QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TROY DEFENSE TXST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2023% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS43% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TROY DEFENSE TXST RUNNING BACKSn=750% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS43% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553653%5%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS STATE OFFENSESECONDARYTROY DEFENSE TXST PASS CATCHERSn=2524% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY SECONDARYn=26 · 1 ROOM62% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TROY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−39
−13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TROY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TROY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.5%
58.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS59.4%
56.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
0.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TXST, ORANGE = TROY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE