SAT 15:30 ET|WILLIAMS-BRICE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U53.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
27
10-3
86
92
99
82%
94
90
31.5
-360
-10.0
HOME
3
9-4
85
77
95
19%
62
96
21.5
+285
+10.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALMISS27—SC3
CLOSED MISS -10.0TOTAL 53.0MISS COVERED · 30 POINTS · UNDER
MISS
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL53.0
SPREADMISS -10.0
IMPLIED — MISS31.5
IMPLIED — SC21.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT15 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 15 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
MISSRECORD UNDERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs11.0-1.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.6
OLE MISS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 11.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SCRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
SOUTH CAROLINA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROLE MISSSOUTH CAROLINA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB72%Quinshon JudkinsPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 71% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB64%Deantre PrinceDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaijahn AnthonyDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZamari WaltonCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB58%Jeremiah Jean-BaptisteLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshanti CistrunkLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMonty MontgomeryLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL49%Isaac UkwuDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCedric JohnsonDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamond GordonDT · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL36%Quincy McGeeOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVictor CurneOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE30%Dayton WadeWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB7%Spencer SandersQB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBLogan Diggs · PORTAL ★4 · LSURashad Amos · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI (OH)REFILLED
DBTrey Amos · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMADecamerion Richardson · PORTAL ★4 · MISSISSIPPI STATEYam Banks · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH ALABAMA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBChris Paul Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · ARKANSASPARTIAL
DLWalter Nolen · PORTAL ★5 · TEXAS A&MPrincely Umanmielen · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAKam Franklin · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLNate Kalepo · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONGerquan Scott · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSDiego Pounds · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEAntwane Wells Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH CAROLINADae'Quan Wright · PORTAL ★4 · VIRGINIA TECHREFILLED
QBAJ Maddox · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OLE MISS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.954 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
66.382 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
43.931 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7070979363 OF 6 GRADED
RB49496040108 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE767685612616 OF 26 GRADED
OL575783472217 OF 22 GRADED
DL909094571811 OF 18 GRADED
LB76769274126 OF 12 GRADED
DB696967522714 OF 27 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE86th86
BLUE-CHIP RATIO34%82
RECRUITING CLASS#21 · 7/18 BC85
CLASS RANK TREND+2 · 3 CYCLES54
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+7 · 25 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SCSHANE BEAMER4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MISSLANE KIFFIN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMISS OFFENSESC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOLE MISS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE MISS QUARTERBACKSn=67% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOLE MISS OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE MISS OFFENSIVE LINEn=2253% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS43% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOLE MISS OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE MISS RUNNING BACKSn=1060% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557848%36%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456471%29%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOLE MISS OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE MISS PASS CATCHERSn=2639% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM7% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−13
−5
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.7%
67.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.1%
62.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.1%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MISS, ORANGE = SC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE