SAT 19:30 ET|HUSKY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/U39.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
8-5
89
59
85
26%
9
84
19.0
-102
+1.5
HOME
27
6-7
75
73
80
3%
34
98
20.5
-118
-1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALMICH17—WASH27
CLOSED WASH -1.5TOTAL 39.5WASH COVERED · 44 POINTS · OVER
MICH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
WASH
MICH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
WASH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL39.5
SPREADWASH -1.5
IMPLIED — MICH19.0
IMPLIED — WASH20.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
40FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
MICHRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.8
MICHIGAN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WASHRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.3
WASHINGTON won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMICHIGANWASHINGTON2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB91%J.J. McCarthyDRAFTED · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL88%Drake NugentOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKarsen BarnhartOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor KeeganDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB71%Junior ColsonDRAFTED · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael BarrettDRAFTED · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE56%AJ BarnerDRAFTED · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCornelius JohnsonDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoman WilsonDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB50%Blake CorumDRAFTED · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB44%Mike SainristilDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh WallaceDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeon SabbPORTAL · ALABAMA · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL44%Jaylen HarrellDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKris JenkinsDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraiden McGregorDE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJadyn Davis · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLJosh Priebe · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERNAndrew Sprague · SIGNEE ★4Blake Frazier · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBJaishawn Barham · PORTAL ★4 · MARYLANDCole Sullivan · SIGNEE ★4Mason Curtis · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEBrady Prieskorn · SIGNEE ★4I'Marion Stewart · SIGNEE ★4Hogan Hansen · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBJordan Marshall · SIGNEE ★4Micah Ka'apana · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJo'Ziah Edmond · SIGNEE ★4Jacob Oden · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLLugard Edokpayi · SIGNEE ★4Devon Baxter · SIGNEE ★4Ted Hammond · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.413 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
24.07 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.535 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB75754210063 OF 6 GRADED
RB55559393116 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE454574842415 OF 24 GRADED
OL595988532113 OF 21 GRADED
DL717185932617 OF 26 GRADED
LB58589261148 OF 14 GRADED
DB606084762416 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE89th89
BLUE-CHIP RATIO48%90
RECRUITING CLASS#16 · 17/26 BC89
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 7 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WASHJEDD FISCHFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MICHSHERRONE MOOREFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1515
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1010
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMICH OFFENSEWASH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMICHIGAN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEWASHINGTON DEFENSE MICH QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS43% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE MICH OFFENSIVE LINEn=2147% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS36% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE MICH RUNNING BACKSn=117% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554249%5%LINEBACKERSLB
0.452486%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMICHIGAN OFFENSESECONDARYWASHINGTON DEFENSE MICH PASS CATCHERSn=2416% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM49% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MICH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+8
+18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MICH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MICH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS67.5%
53.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.7%
74.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.1%
3.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MICH, ORANGE = WASH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE