FRI 20:00 ET|ROSS-ADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP23|O/U61.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
35
13-1
96
94
84
36%
72
77
45.5
-5000
-30.0
HOME
0
1-11
74
47
30
50%
0
78
15.5
+1800
+30.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALORE35—PUR0
CLOSED ORE -30.0TOTAL 61.0ORE COVERED · 35 POINTS · UNDER
ORE
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
PUR
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=59
MARKET
TOTAL61.0
SPREADORE -30.0
IMPLIED — ORE45.5
IMPLIED — PUR15.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT31 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 31 positions on a 59-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
ORERECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs10.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.2
OREGON won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PURRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.2-10.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-24.2
PURDUE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROREGONPURDUE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Bo NixDRAFTED · 98% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB61%Bucky IrvingDRAFTED · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL60%Brandon DorlusDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaki TaimaniDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPopo AumavaeDT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%Evan WilliamsDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSteve Stephens IVDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhyree JacksonDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL33%Jackson Powers-JohnsonDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSteven JonesOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE25%Troy FranklinDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCasey KellyPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB24%Jamal HillDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMase FunaLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDante Moore · PORTAL ★4 · UCLADillon Gabriel · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMAREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLJamaree Caldwell · PORTAL ★4 · HOUSTONDerrick Harmon · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGAN STATEElijah Rushing · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJabbar Muhammad · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTONKam Alexander · PORTAL ★4 · UTSAIfy Obidegwu · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJacQawn McRoy · SIGNEE ★4Fox Crader · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEEvan Stewart · PORTAL ★5 · TEXAS A&MGatlin Bair · SIGNEE ★4Jeremiah McClellan · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBBrayden Platt · SIGNEE ★4Dylan Williams · SIGNEE ★4Kamar Mothudi · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OREGON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.257 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.955 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.356 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB757595063 OF 6 GRADED
RB5858679785 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE747489742314 OF 23 GRADED
OL7272761002312 OF 23 GRADED
DL727291521816 OF 18 GRADED
LB535378991410 OF 14 GRADED
DB666691422516 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE96th96
BLUE-CHIP RATIO56%91
RECRUITING CLASS#3 · 21/31 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 14 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PURRYAN WALTERS2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3737
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2222
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OREDAN LANNING3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESORE OFFENSEPUR OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOREGON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEPURDUE DEFENSE ORE QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOREGON OFFENSEFRONT-7PURDUE DEFENSE ORE OFFENSIVE LINEn=230% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS19% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOREGON OFFENSEFRONT-7PURDUE DEFENSE ORE RUNNING BACKSn=83% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS18% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555075%18%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454990%14%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOREGON OFFENSESECONDARYPURDUE DEFENSE ORE PASS CATCHERSn=2326% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM42% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−2
+63
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.7%
55.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.2%
71.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
4.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ORE, ORANGE = PUR) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE