SAT 12:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U49.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
5-7
88
77
92
71%
26
71
23.0
+136
+3.5
HOME
21
10-3
87
63
88
88%
88
88
26.5
-162
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALAUB17—MIZ21
CLOSED MIZ -3.5TOTAL 49.5MIZ COVERED · 38 POINTS · UNDER
AUB
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MIZ
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=59
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADMIZ -3.5
IMPLIED — AUB23.0
IMPLIED — MIZ26.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
50FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 59-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
AUBRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.4
AUBURN won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MIZRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.5-3.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.0
MISSOURI won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAUBURNMISSOURI2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB70%D.J. JamesCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylin SimpsonDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion PuckettS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB61%Larry Nixon IIILB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah McAllisterLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam RileyPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL48%Marcus HarrisDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin RogersDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLawrence JohnsonDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE41%Jay FairPORTAL · USC · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShane HooksWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalcolm Johnson Jr.PORTAL · BOWLING GREEN · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL27%Gunner BrittonOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAvery JonesOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB9%Robby AshfordPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB2%Brenton WilliamsPORTAL · LIBERTY · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBAntonio Kite · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAJerrin Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASJalyn Crawford · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBDemarcus Riddick · SIGNEE ★4DJ Barber · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLPhilip Blidi · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANAAmaris Williams · SIGNEE ★4Jamonta Waller · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEKeAndre Lambert-Smith · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATERico Walker · PORTAL ★4 · MARYLANDRobert Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLPercy Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEDeAndre Carter · SIGNEE ★4Favour Edwin · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBWalker White · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AUBURN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.324 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.142 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
38.721 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4141749964 OF 6 GRADED
RB79797110085 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE656589412519 OF 25 GRADED
OL565680771814 OF 18 GRADED
DL707079581816 OF 18 GRADED
LB70708650119 OF 11 GRADED
DB646481442520 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE88th88
BLUE-CHIP RATIO53%91
RECRUITING CLASS#10 · 15/22 BC93
CLASS RANK TREND+11 · 3 CYCLES72
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 15 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MIZELI DRINKWITZ5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AUBHUGH FREEZE2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAUB OFFENSEMIZ OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAUBURN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMISSOURI DEFENSE AUB QUARTERBACKSn=61% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS33% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAUBURN OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSOURI DEFENSE AUB OFFENSIVE LINEn=1823% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAUBURN OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSOURI DEFENSE AUB RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557040%32%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456973%15%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAUBURN OFFENSESECONDARYMISSOURI DEFENSE AUB PASS CATCHERSn=2559% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM22% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AUB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+12
0
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
AUB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AUB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.3%
63.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.7%
67.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
4.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AUB, ORANGE = MIZ) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE