SAT 12:00 ET|LANNY AND SHARON MARTIN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/U42.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
23
5-7
81
39
77
51%
41
97
26.0
-375
-9.5
HOME
3
4-8
61
14
73
42%
15
80
16.5
+295
+9.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALWIS23—NU3
CLOSED WIS -9.5TOTAL 42.5WIS COVERED · 26 POINTS · UNDER
WIS
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=59
MARKET
TOTAL42.5
SPREADWIS -9.5
IMPLIED — WIS26.0
IMPLIED — NU16.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
24FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 59-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
WISRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.5
WISCONSIN won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.4-8.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.5
NORTHWESTERN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWISCONSINNORTHWESTERN2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB70%Braelon AllenDRAFTED · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB70%Tanner MordecaiQB · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB61%C.J. GoetzLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan TurnerPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMaema NjongmetaLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL48%Rodas JohnsonPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGio PaezPORTAL · LSU · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarian VarnerPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL41%Tanor BortoliniDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael FurtneyOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE33%Chimere DikePORTAL · FLORIDA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHayden RucciTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSkyler BellPORTAL · UCONN · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB26%Jason MaitreCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlexander SmithCB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBTawee Walker · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMADilin Jones · SIGNEE ★4Darrion Dupree · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
QBTyler Van Dyke · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMIMabrey Mettauer · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
LBTackett Curtis · PORTAL ★4 · USCLeon Lowery · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEJaheim Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLJohn Pius · PORTAL ★4 · WILLIAM & MARYErnest Willor Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Dillan Johnson · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLKevin Heywood · SIGNEE ★4Emerson Mandell · SIGNEE ★4Derek Jensen · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJackson McGohan · PORTAL ★3 · LSUTyrell Henry · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEGrant Stec · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBRJ Delancy III · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOXavier Lucas · SIGNEE ★4Omillio Agard · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WISCONSIN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.947 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.929 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.653 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252498053 OF 5 GRADED
RB4242672496 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE494968972415 OF 24 GRADED
OL585887972013 OF 20 GRADED
DL41416961128 OF 12 GRADED
LB353578541810 OF 18 GRADED
DB575778862115 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE81st81
BLUE-CHIP RATIO30%78
RECRUITING CLASS#23 · 11/26 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND+21 · 3 CYCLES92
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 16 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NUDAVID BRAUN2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2424
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WISLUKE FICKELL2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2525
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWIS OFFENSENU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWISCONSIN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTHWESTERN DEFENSE WIS QUARTERBACKSn=520% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS14% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWISCONSIN OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE WIS OFFENSIVE LINEn=203% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS1% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWISCONSIN OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE WIS RUNNING BACKSn=977% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS1% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554499%5%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454299%17%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWISCONSIN OFFENSESECONDARYNORTHWESTERN DEFENSE WIS PASS CATCHERSn=243% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+24
+36
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.9%
48.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS73.2%
64.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.2%
1.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WIS, ORANGE = NU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE