SAT 12:00 ET|PRATT & WHITNEY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP22|O/U55.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
23
4-8
49
34
17
33%
83
65
29.0
-130
-2.5
HOME
20
9-4
27
28
50
29%
74
7
26.5
+110
+2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALWAKE23—CONN20
CLOSED WAKE -2.5TOTAL 55.5WAKE COVERED · 43 POINTS · UNDER
WAKE
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
CONN
WAKE
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CONN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=59
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADWAKE -2.5
IMPLIED — WAKE29.0
IMPLIED — CONN26.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
54FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 59-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
WAKERECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.4-7.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
WAKE FOREST won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CONNRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.5
UCONN won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWAKE FORESTUCONN2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB74%Mitch GriffisQB · 67% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSantino MarucciPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB67%Malik MustaphaDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaelen CarsonDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChelen GarnesDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE51%Jahmal BanksPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWesley GrimesPORTAL · NC STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKe'Shawn WilliamsPORTAL · INDIANA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB41%Justice EllisonPORTAL · INDIANA · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB40%Jacob RobertsLB · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL32%Michael JurgensDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSpencer ClappOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL4%Jaylen HudsonPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBHank Bachmeier · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANA TECHJeremy Hecklinski · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBCapone Blue · PORTAL ★3 · KENT STATETayshaun Burney · SIGNEE ★3Sam Neely III · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJeremiah Melvin · SIGNEE ★3Ben Grice · SIGNEE ★3Luca Puccinelli · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBTy Clark III · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBBranson Combs · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN ILLINOISAndrew Hines III · SIGNEE ★3Whittman Whaley · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLKeagen Trost · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANA STATEClinton Richard · SIGNEE ★3Jack Hines · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLMateen Ibirogba · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGETOWNCamden Hardy · SIGNEE ★3Kendal Howard · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WAKE FOREST
CARRIED COMPOSITE
59.474 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
57.466 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
60.779 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5151631062 OF 6 GRADED
RB6565689793 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE474763812513 OF 25 GRADED
OL666670832112 OF 21 GRADED
DL565653972214 OF 22 GRADED
LB40405665126 OF 12 GRADED
DB575763672614 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE49th49
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%38
RECRUITING CLASS#52 · 0/22 BC62
CLASS RANK TREND+19 · 3 CYCLES88
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 5 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CONNJIM MORA3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1111
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WAKEDAVE CLAWSON9TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5656
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWAKE OFFENSECONN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWAKE FOREST OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUCONN DEFENSE WAKE QUARTERBACKSn=690% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CONN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWAKE FOREST OFFENSEFRONT-7UCONN DEFENSE WAKE OFFENSIVE LINEn=2117% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CONN FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS38% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWAKE FOREST OFFENSEFRONT-7UCONN DEFENSE WAKE RUNNING BACKSn=93% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CONN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS39% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554968%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWAKE FOREST OFFENSESECONDARYUCONN DEFENSE WAKE PASS CATCHERSn=2519% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CONN SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM51% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CONN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+17
−25
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CONN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CONN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.4%
58.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.9%
57.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
1.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WAKE, ORANGE = CONN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE