SAT 15:30 ET|CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/U46.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
6-7
72
81
32
34%
11
50
18.3
+280
+9.5
HOME
23
6-7
66
29
62
59%
41
45
27.8
-355
-9.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALNCSU24—CAL23
CLOSED CAL -9.5TOTAL 46.0NCSU COVERED · 47 POINTS · OVER
NCSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
CAL
NCSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CAL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=59
MARKET
TOTAL46.0
SPREADCAL -9.5
IMPLIED — NCSU18.3
IMPLIED — CAL27.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT20 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 20 positions on a 59-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
NCSURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.3
NC STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CALRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.1-4.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.9
CALIFORNIA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNC STATECALIFORNIA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Brennan ArmstrongQB · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMJ MorrisPORTAL · MARYLAND · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB74%Julian GrayPORTAL · LIBERTY · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDelbert Mimms IIIPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael AllenPORTAL · UNLV · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE59%Keyon LesaneWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPorter RooksWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrent PennixTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB53%Jaylon ScottLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPayton WilsonDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB45%Robert KennedyDB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShyheim BattleCB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL38%Savion JacksonDE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONC.J. ClarkPORTAL · MIAMI · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL31%Dylan McMahonDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerrick EasonOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLyndon CooperPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGrayson McCall · PORTAL ★4 · COASTAL CAROLINACJ Bailey · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
RBJordan Waters · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEHollywood Smothers · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMADuke Scott · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TENoah Rogers · PORTAL ★4 · OHIO STATEJustin Joly · PORTAL ★4 · UCONNWesley Grimes · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FOREST3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBElijah Groves · SIGNEE ★4Joshua Ofor · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJa'Had Carter · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEDevon Marshall · PORTAL ★3 · VILLANOVACorey Coley Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLAND3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJosh Alexander-Felton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLZeke Correll · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMERobby Martin · SIGNEE ★3Trent Mitchell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NC STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.837 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
32.114 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.459 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB646486063 OF 6 GRADED
RB58589732108 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE585890322013 OF 20 GRADED
OL656580752215 OF 22 GRADED
DL434373881911 OF 19 GRADED
LB55556099157 OF 15 GRADED
DB535382412513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE72nd72
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%76
RECRUITING CLASS#27 · 5/23 BC80
CLASS RANK TREND+37 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 15 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CALJUSTIN WILCOX8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NCSUDAVE DOEREN9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNCSU OFFENSECAL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNC STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECALIFORNIA DEFENSE NCSU QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNC STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE NCSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2225% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS39% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNC STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE NCSU RUNNING BACKSn=1068% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS39% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555265%20%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENC STATE OFFENSESECONDARYCALIFORNIA DEFENSE NCSU PASS CATCHERSn=2068% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM25% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+12
+6
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.8%
48.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.2%
70.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.4%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NCSU, ORANGE = CAL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE