SAT 15:30 ET|YAGER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U43.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
11-3
11
56
54
13%
37
10
20.0
+140
+3.5
HOME
30
9-5
20
37
58
60%
1
11
23.5
-166
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALOHIO20—M-OH30
CLOSED M-OH -3.5TOTAL 43.5M-OH COVERED · 50 POINTS · OVER
OHIO
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
M-OH
OHIO
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
M-OH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=59
MARKET
TOTAL43.5
SPREADM-OH -3.5
IMPLIED — OHIO20.0
IMPLIED — M-OH23.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
36FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 59-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
OHIORECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.8
OHIO won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
M-OHRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.7
MIAMI (OH) won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROHIOMIAMI (OH)2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB94%Kurtis RourkePORTAL · INDIANA · 81% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ HarrisPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB92%Sieh BanguraPORTAL · MINNESOTA · 56% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONO'Shaan AllisonPORTAL · AUSTIN PEAY · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE89%Sam WigluszWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMiles CrossPORTAL · INDIANA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler WaltonWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB88%Bryce HoustonLB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeye ThompsonPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL79%Vonnie WatkinsDE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRayyan BuellPORTAL · COLORADO · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShane BonnerDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL57%Jay AmburgeyOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKurt DannekerOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShedrick Rhodes Jr.PORTAL · RUTGERS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB47%Walter ReynoldsS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin BirchetteCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTorrie Cox Jr.PORTAL · ILLINOIS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
RBAnthony Tyus III · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERNDuncan Brune · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEColeman Owen · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ARIZONAJake Bruno · PORTAL ★3 · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)Dominic Dorwart · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBBlake Leake · PORTAL ★3 · BUCKNELLJasen Kelly · SIGNEE ★3Parker Startz · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLSinn Brennan · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEBen McNaboe · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTACJ Doggette · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLTigana Cisse · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHOBryce Parson · SIGNEE ★3Kesean Anderson · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBDustin Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN COLORADOJacob Proche · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINATony Mathis · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OHIO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
34.710 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
35.518 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.213 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6262788652 OF 5 GRADED
RB3636473164 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE383855562510 OF 25 GRADED
OL515139702014 OF 20 GRADED
DL595959361914 OF 19 GRADED
LB55553454117 OF 11 GRADED
DB373724742318 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE11th11
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%20
RECRUITING CLASS#92 · 0/18 BC32
CLASS RANK TREND+40 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 21 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
M-OHCHUCK MARTIN9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OHIOTIM ALBIN4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4343
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOHIO OFFENSEM-OH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOHIO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMIAMI (OH) DEFENSE OHIO QUARTERBACKSn=514% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS16% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOHIO OFFENSEFRONT-7MIAMI (OH) DEFENSE OHIO OFFENSIVE LINEn=2030% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS12% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOHIO OFFENSEFRONT-7MIAMI (OH) DEFENSE OHIO RUNNING BACKSn=669% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS12% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553681%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOHIO OFFENSESECONDARYMIAMI (OH) DEFENSE OHIO PASS CATCHERSn=2544% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM19% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−45
−31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.2%
51.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS48.3%
61.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.1%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OHIO, ORANGE = M-OH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE