SAT 12:00 ET|SCOTT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP28|O/U58.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
41
6-7
85
67
50
45%
84
39
27.5
+175
+3.5
HOME
14
5-7
56
35
28
62%
75
94
31.0
-210
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALUNC41—UVA14
CLOSED UVA -3.5TOTAL 58.5UNC COVERED · 55 POINTS · UNDER
UNC
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UVA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=56
MARKET
TOTAL58.5
SPREADUVA -3.5
IMPLIED — UNC27.5
IMPLIED — UVA31.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
60FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
UNCRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs7.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.2
NORTH CAROLINA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UVARECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.4-7.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.1
VIRGINIA won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTH CAROLINAVIRGINIA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB92%Drake MayeDRAFTED · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL80%Spencer RollandOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorey GaynorOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEd MontilusOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB53%Cedric GrayDRAFTED · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmari GainerLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Don ChapmanDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGiovanni BiggersDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArmani ChatmanDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB45%DJ JonesPORTAL · WYOMING · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBritish BrooksRB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL25%Myles MurphyDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTomari FoxDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE24%Devontez WalkerDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamari MoralesPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMax Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MREFILLED
OLZach Greenberg · PORTAL ★3 · MUHLENBERGAndrew Rosinski · SIGNEE ★3Desmond Jackson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBAshton Woods · SIGNEE ★3Crews Law · SIGNEE ★3Evan Bennett · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJakeen Harris · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEMalcolm Ziglar · SIGNEE ★4Jaiden Patterson · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBDarwin Barlow · PORTAL ★3 · USCDavion Gause · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLCurtis Simpson · SIGNEE ★3Peter Pesansky · SIGNEE ★3Daniel Anderson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEJake Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MJordan Shipp · SIGNEE ★4Alex Taylor · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTH CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.659 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.540 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
57.471 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB555524984 OF 8 GRADED
RB7676877965 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE575779842817 OF 28 GRADED
OL585877412112 OF 21 GRADED
DL606077901713 OF 17 GRADED
LB575781100117 OF 11 GRADED
DB505078772315 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE85th85
BLUE-CHIP RATIO37%84
RECRUITING CLASS#26 · 6/31 BC81
CLASS RANK TREND-15 · 3 CYCLES20
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 10 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UVATONY ELLIOTT3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNCMACK BROWN6TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNC OFFENSEUVA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEVIRGINIA DEFENSE UNC QUARTERBACKSn=891% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS42% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE UNC OFFENSIVE LINEn=2159% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS7% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE UNC RUNNING BACKSn=621% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS8% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554198%8%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTH CAROLINA OFFENSESECONDARYVIRGINIA DEFENSE UNC PASS CATCHERSn=2816% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM71% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+20
+23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS61.9%
53.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.7%
67.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.1%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNC, ORANGE = UVA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE