SAT 12:00 ET|SIMMONS BANK LIBERTY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
28
5-7
53
24
26
62%
10
30
19.8
+700
+17.0
HOME
33
11-2
48
54
42
80%
96
34
36.8
-1200
-17.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALCLT28—MEM33
CLOSED MEM -17.0TOTAL 56.5CLT COVERED · 61 POINTS · OVER
CLT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MEM
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=56
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADMEM -17.0
IMPLIED — CLT19.8
IMPLIED — MEM36.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
61FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
CLTRECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs3.4-8.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.4
CHARLOTTE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MEMRECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.4
MEMPHIS won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCHARLOTTEMEMPHIS2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL82%Kevin WilliamsOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJasper ParksOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLucas GramlickOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL64%Eyabi Okie-AnomaDL · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMigo JacksonPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonathan WallaceDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB64%Dontez FaganPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah HazelDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeAndre HollinsDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB52%Shadrick ByrdRB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDurell RobinsonPORTAL · UCONN · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoachim BangdaRB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB50%Demetrius Knight IIPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNikhai Hill-GreenPORTAL · COLORADO · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB41%Jalon JonesQB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE18%Jack HesteraPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLMitchell Mayes · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONJordan Spasojevic-Moko · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MMo Clipper Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDre Butler · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEChantz Williams · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIDonovan Spellman · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBAdam Hopkins · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOAntonio Cotman Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHSammy Anderson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCartevious Norton · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATECJ Stokes · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANTre McLeod · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
QBMax Brown · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDADeshawn Purdie · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEO'Mega Blake · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAMiles Burris · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CHARLOTTE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.825 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.452 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.719 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB2424191553 OF 5 GRADED
RB5656535186 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE575754712617 OF 26 GRADED
OL525240401812 OF 18 GRADED
DL373747391511 OF 15 GRADED
LB32324291139 OF 13 GRADED
DB484856492317 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE53rd53
BLUE-CHIP RATIO16%63
RECRUITING CLASS#74 · 0/16 BC45
CLASS RANK TREND+33 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 28 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MEMRYAN SILVERFIELD5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CLTBIFF POGGI2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCLT OFFENSEMEM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCHARLOTTE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMEMPHIS DEFENSE CLT QUARTERBACKSn=585% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MEM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 62 PLAYERS55% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCHARLOTTE OFFENSEFRONT-7MEMPHIS DEFENSE CLT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1860% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MEM FRONT-7n=38 · 2 ROOMS61% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCHARLOTTE OFFENSEFRONT-7MEMPHIS DEFENSE CLT RUNNING BACKSn=849% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MEM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 38 PLAYERS61% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554837%18%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECHARLOTTE OFFENSESECONDARYMEMPHIS DEFENSE CLT PASS CATCHERSn=2629% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MEM SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM49% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MEM
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+40
−30
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MEM
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MEM
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.0%
52.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS63.0%
70.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.7%
0.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CLT, ORANGE = MEM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE