SAT 17:00 ET|CANVAS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U62.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
6
5-7
15
83
0
35%
35
9
29.3
+190
+3.5
HOME
17
8-5
30
33
24
64%
30
3
32.8
-230
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALUNM6—CSU17
CLOSED CSU -3.5TOTAL 62.0CSU COVERED · 23 POINTS · UNDER
UNM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=56
MARKET
TOTAL62.0
SPREADCSU -3.5
IMPLIED — UNM29.3
IMPLIED — CSU32.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
64FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
UNMRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.1-6.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
NEW MEXICO won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CSURECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.7
COLORADO STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEW MEXICOCOLORADO STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB84%Jacory Croskey-MerrittPORTAL · ARIZONA · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSherod WhiteRB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDorian LewisRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB82%Dylan HopkinsQB · 81% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB82%Syaire RileyLB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlec MarencoLB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRay LeuteleLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL65%J.C. DavisPORTAL · ILLINOIS · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaurrian StaffordOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ WingfieldPORTAL · PURDUE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE54%Desna WashingtonPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah HixonWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWyatt McClourTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB48%Zach MorrisPORTAL · UTSA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonte MartinCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJermarius LewisPORTAL · UTSA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL22%Destin GainerDE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHunter RapollaPORTAL · UTEP · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBEli Sanders · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEJaven Jacobs · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEREFILLED
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
LBTirek Austin-Cave · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIARandolph Kpai · PORTAL ★4 · NEBRASKABlake Tabaracci · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLJawaun Singletary · PORTAL ★3 · GRAMBLINGTevin Shaw · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONRichard Pearce · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINA6 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEIsaiah Jones · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEShawn Miller · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISREFILLED
DBNoah Avinger · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEIsh Burdine · PORTAL ★3 · TCUDominic Tatum · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLDevin Brandt · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONAntoineo Harris Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANA STATEDe'jon Benton · PORTAL ★3 · USC2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEW MEXICO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.336 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
27.48 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.963 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB71717810061 OF 6 GRADED
RB555553085 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE454559761610 OF 16 GRADED
OL767630111912 OF 19 GRADED
DL171749452012 OF 20 GRADED
LB2020710092 OF 9 GRADED
DB363663502516 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE15th15
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%34
RECRUITING CLASS#201 · 0/5 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-102 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 28 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CSUJAY NORVELL3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7070
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5353
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNMBRONCO MENDENHALLFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2222
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNM OFFENSECSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEW MEXICO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECOLORADO STATE DEFENSE UNM QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEW MEXICO OFFENSEFRONT-7COLORADO STATE DEFENSE UNM OFFENSIVE LINEn=1989% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CSU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS32% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEW MEXICO OFFENSEFRONT-7COLORADO STATE DEFENSE UNM RUNNING BACKSn=8100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553262%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEW MEXICO OFFENSESECONDARYCOLORADO STATE DEFENSE UNM PASS CATCHERSn=1624% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CSU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−2
−2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.0%
67.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.0%
70.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNM, ORANGE = CSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE