SAT 19:00 ET|HARD ROCK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U55.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
2-10
91
26
72
21%
6
92
16.3
+1000
+22.5
HOME
36
10-3
91
100
57
47%
92
53
38.8
-1800
-22.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALFSU14—MIA36
CLOSED MIA -22.5TOTAL 55.0FSU COVERED · 50 POINTS · UNDER
FSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MIA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=56
MARKET
TOTAL55.0
SPREADMIA -22.5
IMPLIED — FSU16.3
IMPLIED — MIA38.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
58FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
FSURECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.3-9.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.6
FLORIDA STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MIARECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+20.3
MIAMI won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA STATEMIAMI2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB87%Jordan TravisDRAFTED · 74% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTate RodemakerPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL57%Jared VerseDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraden FiskeDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFabien LovettDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB55%Trey BensonDRAFTED · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRodney HillPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE55%Keon ColemanDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaheim BellDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohnny WilsonDRAFTED · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB54%Kalen DeLoachLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTatum BethuneDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL46%Casey RoddickOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND'Mitri EmmanuelOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBless HarrisPORTAL · TCU · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB40%Renardo GreenDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAkeem DentDB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarrian JonesDRAFTED · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDJ Uiagalelei · PORTAL ★4 · OREGON STATELuke Kromenhoek · SIGNEE ★4Trever Jackson · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
DLMarvin Jones Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIASione Lolohea · PORTAL ★4 · OREGON STATETomiwa Durojaiye · PORTAL ★4 · WEST VIRGINIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBRoydell Williams · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAKam Davis · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TEJalen Brown · PORTAL ★4 · LSUMalik Benson · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMALanden Thomas · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBShawn Murphy · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAPARTIAL
OLTJ Ferguson · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAJonathan Daniels · SIGNEE ★4Manasse Itete · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBEarl Little II · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMACharles Lester III · SIGNEE ★4Cai Bates · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.430 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
34.916 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.540 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6161743163 OF 6 GRADED
RB5252877186 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE565680592416 OF 24 GRADED
OL404075681914 OF 19 GRADED
DL808079662320 OF 23 GRADED
LB66668478149 OF 14 GRADED
DB717179852319 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE91st91
BLUE-CHIP RATIO47%89
RECRUITING CLASS#12 · 16/25 BC92
CLASS RANK TREND+8 · 3 CYCLES66
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+10 · 17 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MIAMARIO CRISTOBAL3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FSUMIKE NORVELL5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFSU OFFENSEMIA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMIAMI DEFENSE FSU QUARTERBACKSn=669% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS42% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MIAMI DEFENSE FSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1932% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIA FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS43% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MIAMI DEFENSE FSU RUNNING BACKSn=829% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558045%48%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456975%54%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA STATE OFFENSESECONDARYMIAMI DEFENSE FSU PASS CATCHERSn=2441% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIA SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM42% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+53
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.9%
50.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.3%
74.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.4%
2.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FSU, ORANGE = MIA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE