FRI 20:00 ET|ALBERTSONS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U55.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
3-9
45
8
12
38%
61
22
15.5
+1400
+24.5
HOME
56
12-2
45
74
41
50%
76
23
40.0
-3200
-24.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALSDSU24—BOIS56
CLOSED BOIS -24.5TOTAL 55.5BOIS COVERED · 80 POINTS · OVER
SDSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BOIS
SDSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BOIS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=48
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADBOIS -24.5
IMPLIED — SDSU15.5
IMPLIED — BOIS40.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
61FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 48-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
SDSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.8-8.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.3
SAN DIEGO STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BOISRECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.2
BOISE STATE won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAN DIEGO STATEBOISE STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jalen MaydenQB · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB74%Cedarious BarfieldS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDez MalonePORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus RatcliffePORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE72%Mark RedmanPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron HarpolePORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrionne PennyPORTAL · JAMES MADISON · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB64%Cooper McDonaldPORTAL · TCU · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZyrus FiaseuPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVai KahoLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL61%Cade BennettOL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon Crenshaw-DicksonPORTAL · FLORIDA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew AzzopardiPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL46%Garret FountainDL · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel OkpokoDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB15%Martin BlakeRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBAJ Duffy · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEDanny O'Neil · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBBryce Phillips · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEE STATEDalesean Staley · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN IOWAWilliam Nimmo Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · UCLA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMichael Harrison · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOJude Wolfe · PORTAL ★3 · USCJerry McClure · PORTAL ★3 · UCLA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKyle Moretti · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MICHIGANPARTIAL
OLKai Holec · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Wolfer · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLMarlem Louis · PORTAL ★3 · RICHMONDEzekiel Larry · PORTAL ★3 · YALEREFILLED
RBMarquez Cooper · PORTAL ★3 · BALL STATECincere Rhaney · SIGNEE ★3Anthony McMillian · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAN DIEGO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.814 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.327 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.018 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB393965052 OF 5 GRADED
RB4646741174 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE464657252111 OF 21 GRADED
OL383828301411 OF 14 GRADED
DL494936501812 OF 18 GRADED
LB35355056139 OF 13 GRADED
DB434355562116 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE45th45
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%47
RECRUITING CLASS#72 · 0/17 BC47
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 24 IN / 36 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BOISSPENCER DANIELSONFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SDSUSEAN LEWISFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1313
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSDSU OFFENSEBOIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBOISE STATE DEFENSE SDSU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS13% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE SDSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1470% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS5% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE SDSU RUNNING BACKSn=789% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS5% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557593%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSESECONDARYBOISE STATE DEFENSE SDSU PASS CATCHERSn=2175% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM20% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+33
−36
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.7%
65.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.0%
66.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.9%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SDSU, ORANGE = BOIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE