SAT 15:30 ET|FBC MORTGAGE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U55.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
12
4-8
60
44
49
62%
28
65
24.3
+185
+6.5
HOME
56
4-8
77
88
80
40%
69
71
30.8
-225
-6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALARIZ12—UCF56
CLOSED UCF -6.5TOTAL 55.0UCF COVERED · 68 POINTS · OVER
ARIZ
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UCF
ARIZ
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UCF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=48
MARKET
TOTAL55.0
SPREADUCF -6.5
IMPLIED — ARIZ24.3
IMPLIED — UCF30.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
54FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
ARIZRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.0
ARIZONA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UCFRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
UCF won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARIZONAUCF2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB90%Jonah ColemanPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael WileyRB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ WilliamsRB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL82%Bill NortonPORTAL · TEXAS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler ManoaDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTiaoalii SaveaPORTAL · TEXAS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE52%Tanner McLachlanDRAFTED · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob CowingDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB40%Taylor UpshawLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel HeimuliPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremy MercierLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB34%Ephesians PrysockPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMartell IrbyDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB28%Jayden de LauraQB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL24%Jordan MorganDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph BorjonPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBKedrick Reescano · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSJacory Croskey-Merritt · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOQuali Conley · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLTre Smith · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEKevon Darton · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEChubba Ma'ae · PORTAL ★3 · UC DAVIS1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TESam Olson · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEReymello Murphy · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONBrandon Phelps · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBJabari Mann · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJordan Shaw · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANAMarquis Groves-Killebrew · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEDemetrius Freeney · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBDemond Williams Jr. · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
OLJonah Rodriguez · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATERyan Stewart · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEMichael Levelle Watkins · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARIZONA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
58.673 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
67.885 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.857 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5050749952 OF 5 GRADED
RB525283676 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE494976522312 OF 23 GRADED
OL545462591911 OF 19 GRADED
DL52526547179 OF 17 GRADED
LB46465270137 OF 13 GRADED
DB444467581914 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE60th60
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%59
RECRUITING CLASS#85 · 2/15 BC37
CLASS RANK TREND-63 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-7 · 24 IN / 31 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UCFGUS MALZAHN4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2121
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARIZBRENT BRENNANFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8686
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARIZ OFFENSEUCF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARIZONA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUCF DEFENSE ARIZ QUARTERBACKSn=51% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS58% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARIZONA OFFENSEFRONT-7UCF DEFENSE ARIZ OFFENSIVE LINEn=1941% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS56% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARIZONA OFFENSEFRONT-7UCF DEFENSE ARIZ RUNNING BACKSn=794% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS59% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556870%31%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARIZONA OFFENSESECONDARYUCF DEFENSE ARIZ PASS CATCHERSn=2348% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM60% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+20
+23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS48.6%
66.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS75.2%
60.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARIZ, ORANGE = UCF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE