SAT 15:30 ET|EVERBANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
8-5
92
92
81
72%
8
91
19.0
+500
+14.5
HOME
34
11-3
99
95
90
60%
65
77
33.5
-700
-14.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALFLA20—UGA34
CLOSED UGA -14.5TOTAL 52.5FLA COVERED · 54 POINTS · OVER
FLA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UGA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=48
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADUGA -14.5
IMPLIED — FLA19.0
IMPLIED — UGA33.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 48-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
FLARECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.6
FLORIDA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UGARECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.8
GEORGIA won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDAGEORGIA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB55%Scooby WilliamsPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMannie NunneryPORTAL · TEXAS STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTeradja MitchellLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL43%Richie Leonard IVPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMicah MazzccuaPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKingsley EguakunOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB41%Jaydon HillPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen KimberPORTAL · PENN STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMiguel MitchellPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB40%Trevor EtiennePORTAL · GEORGIA · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE31%Ricky PearsallDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL30%Princely UmanmielenPORTAL · OLE MISS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris McClellanPORTAL · MISSOURI · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB10%Max BrownPORTAL · CHARLOTTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBGrayson Howard · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH CAROLINAMyles Graham · SIGNEE ★4Aaron Chiles · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLJason Zandamela · PORTAL ★4 · USCDevon Manuel · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASFletcher Westphal · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBCormani McClain · PORTAL ★4 · COLORADOJameer Grimsley · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMATrikweze Bridges · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKD Daniels · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEElijhah Badger · PORTAL ★4 · ARIZONA STATEChimere Dike · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINAmir Jackson · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJoey Slackman · PORTAL ★4 · PENNSYLVANIALJ McCray · SIGNEE ★5D'Antre Robinson · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
QBDJ Lagway · SIGNEE ★5INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.569 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.553 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
60.076 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6161872873 OF 7 GRADED
RB7676783787 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE828281672717 OF 27 GRADED
OL717179702316 OF 23 GRADED
DL717186692417 OF 24 GRADED
LB606088661412 OF 14 GRADED
DB828286732218 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE92nd92
BLUE-CHIP RATIO60%94
RECRUITING CLASS#13 · 13/19 BC91
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 15 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UGAKIRBY SMART9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8080
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FLABILLY NAPIER3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3939
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4141
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFLA OFFENSEUGA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEGEORGIA DEFENSE FLA QUARTERBACKSn=772% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS12% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA OFFENSEFRONT-7GEORGIA DEFENSE FLA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2330% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS8% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA OFFENSEFRONT-7GEORGIA DEFENSE FLA RUNNING BACKSn=863% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS7% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557091%88%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457695%79%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA OFFENSESECONDARYGEORGIA DEFENSE FLA PASS CATCHERSn=2733% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM15% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+6
+3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS63.1%
50.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.5%
72.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FLA, ORANGE = UGA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE