SAT 15:30 ET|TDECU STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
19
9-4
54
72
93
39%
32
75
29.5
-560
-12.5
HOME
24
4-8
53
14
76
64%
3
73
17.0
+370
+12.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALKSU19—HOU24
CLOSED KSU -12.5TOTAL 46.5HOU COVERED · 43 POINTS · UNDER
KSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
HOU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=48
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADKSU -12.5
IMPLIED — KSU29.5
IMPLIED — HOU17.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
24FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 48-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
KSURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.8
KANSAS STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
HOURECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.8-9.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.9
HOUSTON won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKANSAS STATEHOUSTON2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB84%Will HowardPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 84% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL65%Hayden GillumOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCooper BeebeDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKT LevestonDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE50%Ben SinnottDRAFTED · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPhillip BrooksWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL40%Khalid DukeDE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate MatlackPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJevon BanksPORTAL · UCONN · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB35%Treshaun WardPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB30%Kobe SavagePORTAL · OREGON · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill Lee IIIPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB16%Jake CliftonLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel GreenLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTa'Quan Roberson · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNBlake Barnett · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLEaston Kilty · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH DAKOTAGus Hawkins · SIGNEE ★4Kaedin Massey · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEDante Cephas · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATETrae Davis III · SIGNEE ★4Jacques Spradley-Demps · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLTravis Bates · PORTAL ★3 · AUSTIN PEAYTruman Griffith · SIGNEE ★2Holden Bass · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
RBDylan Edwards · PORTAL ★4 · COLORADOJB Price · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJordan Riley · PORTAL ★3 · BALL STATEJordan Dunbar · PORTAL ★3 · RICECallen Barta · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBAlec Marenco · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOBoone Morris · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KANSAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
59.776 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.834 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
70.691 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7272949753 OF 5 GRADED
RB6464837476 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE484867822515 OF 25 GRADED
OL646465822111 OF 21 GRADED
DL666662851712 OF 17 GRADED
LB757558981611 OF 16 GRADED
DB616161832621 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE54th54
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%54
RECRUITING CLASS#57 · 2/18 BC58
CLASS RANK TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES62
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 10 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
HOUWILLIE FRITZFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KSUCHRIS KLIEMAN6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3939
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7474
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKSU OFFENSEHOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEHOUSTON DEFENSE KSU QUARTERBACKSn=53% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS67% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE KSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2118% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS54% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE KSU RUNNING BACKSn=726% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS53% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556436%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455260%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKANSAS STATE OFFENSESECONDARYHOUSTON DEFENSE KSU PASS CATCHERSn=2518% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM77% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−34
+28
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.2%
60.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.6%
49.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KSU, ORANGE = HOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE