SAT 19:00 ET|VALLEY CHILDREN'S STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/U45.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
5-7
22
17
38
90%
65
31
16.8
+350
+12.0
HOME
20
6-7
36
10
64
68%
20
20
28.8
-455
-12.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALHAW21—FRES20
CLOSED FRES -12.0TOTAL 45.5HAW COVERED · 41 POINTS · UNDER
HAW
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
FRES
HAW
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FRES
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=48
MARKET
TOTAL45.5
SPREADFRES -12.0
IMPLIED — HAW16.8
IMPLIED — FRES28.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
29FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 48-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
HAWRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.7
HAWAI'I won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FRESRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.0
FRESNO STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERHAWAI'IFRESNO STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL57%Andrew ChoiDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonah Kahahawai-WelchDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn TuitupouDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL43%Eliki TanuvasaOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh AtkinsPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB35%Isaiah TufagaLB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB32%Jordan JohnsonRB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNasjzae Bryant-LeleiPORTAL · BLACK HILLS STATE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE15%Jalen WalthallPORTAL · INCARNATE WORD · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB1%CJ WilliamsDB · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB1%Dalen MorrisQB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLDion Washington · PORTAL ★3 · NEVADAJamar Sekona · PORTAL ★3 · USCAlvin Puefua · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJay Tauala-Harris · SIGNEE ★3Boogie Henderson · SIGNEE ★3Joshua Tavui · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNazaiah Caravallo · SIGNEE ★3Alika Cavaco-Amoy · SIGNEE ★3Matteus Ioane · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBCam Barfield · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEREFILLED
WR/TEDekel Crowdus · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYFrank Abreu · SIGNEE ★3Armando Lewis Jr. · SIGNEE ★22 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBFabian Ross · PORTAL ★3 · USCINTACT
QBMicah Alejado · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · HAWAI'I
CARRIED COMPOSITE
72.795 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
72.290 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
73.095 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3636458553 OF 5 GRADED
RB5959257986 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE292933782314 OF 23 GRADED
OL474750631911 OF 19 GRADED
DL565627782518 OF 25 GRADED
LB484832100127 OF 12 GRADED
DB585830962415 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE22nd22
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%26
RECRUITING CLASS#116 · 0/18 BC14
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 6 IN / 11 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FRESTIM SKIPPERFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1212
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
HAWTIMMY CHANG3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9999
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESHAW OFFENSEFRES OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBHAWAI'I OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFRESNO STATE DEFENSE HAW QUARTERBACKSn=515% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS14% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLHAWAI'I OFFENSEFRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE HAW OFFENSIVE LINEn=1937% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS12% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBHAWAI'I OFFENSEFRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE HAW RUNNING BACKSn=821% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS11% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553081%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEHAWAI'I OFFENSESECONDARYFRESNO STATE DEFENSE HAW PASS CATCHERSn=2322% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM15% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS41.8%
51.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS75.0%
73.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.1%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = HAW, ORANGE = FRES) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE