SAT 20:00 ET|MCLANE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/U64.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
34
9-4
80
89
66
54%
68
35
30.8
+114
+2.5
HOME
37
8-5
69
75
55
55%
71
44
33.3
-135
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTCU34—BAY37
CLOSED BAY -2.5TOTAL 64.0BAY COVERED · 71 POINTS · OVER
TCU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BAY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=48
MARKET
TOTAL64.0
SPREADBAY -2.5
IMPLIED — TCU30.8
IMPLIED — BAY33.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
63FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 48-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
TCURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.0
TCU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BAYRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.2-3.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.4
BAYLOR won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTCUBAYLOR2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL71%John LanzOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWillis PatrickOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew CokerOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB69%Emani BaileyRB · 69% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB55%Josh NewtonDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMark PerryS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMillard BradfordS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Damonic WilliamsPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSoni MisiDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTico BrownDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB43%Chandler MorrisPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE42%Jared WileyDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylon RobinsonWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWarren ThompsonWR · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB34%Jamoi HodgeLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLCade Bennett · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEBless Harris · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJames Brockermeyer · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMA2 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBJeremy Payne · SIGNEE ★4Nate Palmer · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJaise Oliver · PORTAL ★3 · TULSAJaTravis Broughton · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHAustin Jordan · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDevean Deal · PORTAL ★3 · TULANENaNa Osafo-Mensah · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMETravis Jackson · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
QBKen Seals · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTHauss Hejny · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
WR/TEBraylon James · PORTAL ★4 · NOTRE DAMEEric McAlister · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEDrake Dabney · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLOR2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKaleb Elarms-Orr · PORTAL ★4 · CALIFORNIACooper McDonald · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TCU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
49.450 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
42.330 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.761 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7070989752 OF 5 GRADED
RB43437867107 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE727277692819 OF 28 GRADED
OL666675322213 OF 22 GRADED
DL404083491911 OF 19 GRADED
LB484877711410 OF 14 GRADED
DB696976582317 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE80th80
BLUE-CHIP RATIO32%79
RECRUITING CLASS#34 · 5/21 BC75
CLASS RANK TREND+11 · 3 CYCLES72
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 23 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BAYDAVE ARANDA5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TCUSONNY DYKES3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTCU OFFENSEBAY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTCU OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBAYLOR DEFENSE TCU QUARTERBACKSn=53% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS32% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTCU OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE TCU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2268% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTCU OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE TCU RUNNING BACKSn=1033% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556155%11%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455555%13%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETCU OFFENSESECONDARYBAYLOR DEFENSE TCU PASS CATCHERSn=2831% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−2
−4
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS49.4%
60.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS72.4%
60.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TCU, ORANGE = BAY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE