SAT 20:00 ET|ALBERTSONS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP21|O/U60.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
3-10
23
51
8
49%
28
41
18.5
+1300
+23.5
HOME
28
12-2
45
74
41
50%
76
30
42.0
-4000
-23.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALNEV21—BOIS28
CLOSED BOIS -23.5TOTAL 60.5NEV COVERED · 49 POINTS · UNDER
NEV
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BOIS
NEV
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BOIS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=50
MARKET
TOTAL60.5
SPREADBOIS -23.5
IMPLIED — NEV18.5
IMPLIED — BOIS42.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
70FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 50-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
NEVRECORD UNDERSTATES
3-10ACTUALvs4.8-8.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.7
NEVADA won 3 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BOISRECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.2
BOISE STATE won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEVADABOISE STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE78%Dalevon CampbellPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSpencer CurtisPORTAL · HAWAI'I · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeleki LatuPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB55%Jaden DedmanDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEmany JohnsonDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRichard Toney Jr.PORTAL · TCU · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL47%James HansenPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcel Walker-BurgessPORTAL · OHIO · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion WashingtonPORTAL · HAWAI'I · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB35%Eli'jah WinstonLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavion BlackwellPORTAL · AUSTIN PEAY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL31%Zac WelchOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoey CapraPORTAL · ARIZONA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB20%Jacques Badolato-BirdsellPORTAL · PORTLAND STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCross PattonPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB8%Shane IllingworthQB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEAndrew Savaiinaea · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAJace Henry · PORTAL ★3 · DARTMOUTHDaijon Calimon · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBKitan Crawford · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASDavis Mallinger · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAKeyshawn Cobb · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLKaden Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINZaiden Wallace · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBLeVar Talley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLDylan Lopez · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATESnoop Leota-Amaama · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAJakobus Seth · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBSavion Red · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASPatrick Garwo III · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEDeston Hawkins · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEINTACT
QBChubba Purdy · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAAnthony Wolter · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEVADA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.333 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.833 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
44.633 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7070649363 OF 6 GRADED
RB4949671887 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE313150132314 OF 23 GRADED
OL545443851713 OF 17 GRADED
DL292957432114 OF 21 GRADED
LB33332673115 OF 11 GRADED
DB545467751814 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE23rd23
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%45
RECRUITING CLASS#127 · 0/17 BC5
CLASS RANK TREND-12 · 3 CYCLES26
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BOISSPENCER DANIELSONFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEVJEFF CHOATEFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1212
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEV OFFENSEBOIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEVADA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBOISE STATE DEFENSE NEV QUARTERBACKSn=67% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS13% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEVADA OFFENSEFRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE NEV OFFENSIVE LINEn=1715% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS5% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEVADA OFFENSEFRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE NEV RUNNING BACKSn=882% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS5% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557593%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEVADA OFFENSESECONDARYBOISE STATE DEFENSE NEV PASS CATCHERSn=2387% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM20% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+8
−36
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.2%
65.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.2%
66.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.2%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEV, ORANGE = BOIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE