WED 19:00 ET|HUSKIE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/U43.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
16
4-8
26
9
23
27%
35
10
14.8
+440
+14.0
HOME
29
8-5
10
30
79
60%
78
20
28.8
-600
-14.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALAKR16—NIU29
CLOSED NIU -14.0TOTAL 43.5AKR COVERED · 45 POINTS · OVER
AKR
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NIU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL43.5
SPREADNIU -14.0
IMPLIED — AKR14.8
IMPLIED — NIU28.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
43FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
AKRRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.6
AKRON won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NIURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.8
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAKRONNORTHERN ILLINOIS2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB98%Lorenzo LingardRB · 75% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrake AndersonRB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB83%Jeff Undercuffler Jr.QB · 50% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ IronsQB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB73%Judson Tallandier IIDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorey Thomas Jr.PORTAL · VIRGINIA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate ThompsonDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE64%Daniel GeorgeWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ BanksTE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJasaiah GathingsPORTAL · UCONN · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL60%Ronan ChambersPORTAL · AUBURN · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate WilliamsPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBen FrankOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL44%Terray JonesDT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLaJoshua JacksonDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevon RobinsonDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB10%Jaharon GriffinPORTAL · ALCORN STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBMarquese Williams · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAJordon Simmons · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATESean Patrick · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBBen Finley · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIABrayden Roggow · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBDaymon David · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONPaul Lewis III · PORTAL ★3 · CORNELLAman Greenwood · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEIsrael Polk · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHMax Whisner · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIKhalil Witherspoon · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLIssiah Walker Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEDayne Shor · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNRoosevelt Mitchell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLNathan Kapongo · PORTAL ★3 · NEW HAMPSHIREDimitri Madden · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPTristen Graham · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJason Hocker · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AKRON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.339 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.627 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.951 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB414118743 OF 4 GRADED
RB4646644473 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE484842622012 OF 20 GRADED
OL292945601912 OF 19 GRADED
DL363626671914 OF 19 GRADED
LB1616178186 OF 8 GRADED
DB292950462215 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE26th26
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%49
RECRUITING CLASS#101 · 0/13 BC25
CLASS RANK TREND+26 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 15 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NIUTHOMAS HAMMOCK6TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AKRJOE MOORHEAD3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8686
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAKR OFFENSENIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAKRON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE AKR QUARTERBACKSn=493% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS18% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAKRON OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE AKR OFFENSIVE LINEn=1940% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS22% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAKRON OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE AKR RUNNING BACKSn=756% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS24% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555488%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAKRON OFFENSESECONDARYNORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE AKR PASS CATCHERSn=2038% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM15% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+16
−30
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS49.9%
65.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS76.9%
55.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.7%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AKR, ORANGE = NIU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE