THU 19:30 ET|CHAPMAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/U63.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
38
8-5
47
45
43
33%
62
43
39.8
-800
-16.0
HOME
31
3-9
33
7
3
71%
95
17
23.8
+550
+16.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALECU38—TLSA31
CLOSED ECU -16.0TOTAL 63.5TLSA COVERED · 69 POINTS · OVER
ECU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TLSA
ECU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TLSA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL63.5
SPREADECU -16.0
IMPLIED — ECU39.8
IMPLIED — TLSA23.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
60FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
ECURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.1-4.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.7
EAST CAROLINA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TLSARECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-17.5
TULSA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEREAST CAROLINATULSA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Alex FlinnQB · 75% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason GarciaPORTAL · AUSTIN PEAY · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB79%Teylor JacksonPORTAL · LIBERTY · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremy LewisLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBJ DavisLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE58%Jsi HatfieldWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen JohnsonWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShane CalhounPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB31%Julius WoodDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTeagan WilkPORTAL · HOUSTON · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL23%Owen MurphyOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB21%Gerald GreenPORTAL · TROY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamarro EdmondsRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL8%Jason ShufordPORTAL · MARSHALL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBKatin Houser · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEJake Garcia · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURICole Hodge · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBDameon Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIKevon Merrell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TECasey Kelly · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONJayvontay Conner · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSWinston Wright Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBAyden Duncanson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAGavin Gibson · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDJa'Marley Riddle · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLDarius Bell · PORTAL ★3 · MAINEZack Boehly · SIGNEE ★3Kenny Walz · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBLondon Montgomery · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATETJ Engleman · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLJaden McKenzie · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATENick Slogik · SIGNEE ★3Shaikh Thompson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · EAST CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
60.177 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
61.075 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
59.575 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB444491052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3232637673 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE575762402414 OF 24 GRADED
OL535359582012 OF 20 GRADED
DL545437912014 OF 20 GRADED
LB494940671410 OF 14 GRADED
DB474754622717 OF 27 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE47th47
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%38
RECRUITING CLASS#73 · 0/20 BC46
CLASS RANK TREND+12 · 3 CYCLES74
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 17 IN / 33 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TLSAKEVIN WILSON2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1414
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ECUMIKE HOUSTON6TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4343
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESECU OFFENSETLSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBEAST CAROLINA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETULSA DEFENSE ECU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS42% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLEAST CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7TULSA DEFENSE ECU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2042% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA FRONT-7n=38 · 2 ROOMS58% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBEAST CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7TULSA DEFENSE ECU RUNNING BACKSn=724% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 38 PLAYERS61% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554865%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEEAST CAROLINA OFFENSESECONDARYTULSA DEFENSE ECU PASS CATCHERSn=2460% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM28% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ECU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾0
+26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ECU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ECU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.9%
57.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.9%
67.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.3%
6.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ECU, ORANGE = TLSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE