SAT 12:00 ET|FOLSOM FIELDCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U43.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
5-7
77
15
95
32%
17
73
15.0
+305
+13.5
HOME
49
9-4
78
71
86
67%
37
52
28.5
-410
-13.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALUTAH24—COLO49
CLOSED COLO -13.5TOTAL 43.5COLO COVERED · 73 POINTS · OVER
UTAH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
COLO
UTAH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
COLO
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL43.5
SPREADCOLO -13.5
IMPLIED — UTAH15.0
IMPLIED — COLO28.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
28FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
UTAHRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.9
UTAH won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
COLORECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.5
COLORADO won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTAHCOLORADO2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB96%Bryson BarnesPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 96% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB59%Sione VakiDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole BishopDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaTravis BroughtonPORTAL · TCU · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%Ja'Quinden JacksonPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate JohnsonPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL46%Keaton BillsOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSataoa LaumeaDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKoli FaaiuPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE36%Devaughn VeleDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONThomas YassminTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMikey MatthewsPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL19%Jonah EllissDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB9%Chase KennedyPORTAL · ARIZONA · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBSam Huard · PORTAL ★3 · CAL POLYIsaac Wilson · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
DBCameron Calhoun · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANKenan Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHAlaka'i Gilman · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORD6 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBAnthony Woods · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHOREFILLED
OLIsaiah Garcia · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TECarsen Ryan · PORTAL ★4 · UCLATaeshaun Lyons · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTONDorian Singer · PORTAL ★4 · USC3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLPaul Fitzgerald · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATEJohn Henry Daley · PORTAL ★3 · BYUKash Dillon · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBKana'i Lopes · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTAH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
60.779 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.155 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
66.584 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB353565854 OF 5 GRADED
RB5353589098 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE555570442816 OF 28 GRADED
OL434375771811 OF 18 GRADED
DL646477882114 OF 21 GRADED
LB61616898108 OF 10 GRADED
DB606081702012 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO25%74
RECRUITING CLASS#59 · 2/16 BC56
CLASS RANK TREND-25 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 11 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
COLODEION SANDERS2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTAHKYLE WHITTINGHAM9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2121
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUTAH OFFENSECOLO OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTAH OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECOLORADO DEFENSE UTAH QUARTERBACKSn=592% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
COLO DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS51% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTAH OFFENSEFRONT-7COLORADO DEFENSE UTAH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1823% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
COLO FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS53% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTAH OFFENSEFRONT-7COLORADO DEFENSE UTAH RUNNING BACKSn=910% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
COLO FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS53% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558144%22%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456951%30%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTAH OFFENSESECONDARYCOLORADO DEFENSE UTAH PASS CATCHERSn=2856% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
COLO SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM50% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UTAH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
COLO
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+5
+6
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UTAH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
COLO
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UTAH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
COLO
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.6%
44.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.3%
80.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UTAH, ORANGE = COLO) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE