SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2022 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›COLORADO STATE›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
PAC-12|JAY NORVELL|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
COLORADO STATE125 FPIPAC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
27FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
2%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#780 BC / 16
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs1.9-10.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-13.8
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 1.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE1
PERFORMANCE1
TALENT39
CONTINUITY2
DEFENSE12
PERFORMANCE12
TALENT40
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
37MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3AMICHIGAN#3L 7-51919999-94BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HMIDDLE TENNESSEE—L 19-34263232-27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17AWASHINGTON STATE—L 7-38507272-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HSACRAMENTO STATE—L 10-414———NON-FBS OPPONENT
6OCT 7ANEVADA—W 17-142444+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15HUTAH STATE—L 13-17171717-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22HHAWAI'I—W 17-132622+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29ABOISE STATE—L 10-49486161-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5ASAN JOSÉ STATE—L 16-28253737-32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HWYOMING—L 13-14112424-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19AAIR FORCE—L 12-2405656-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HNEW MEXICO—W 17-01211+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB28TAL20PERF28RET0ONE OWNERn=3 · 7 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
CLAY MILLENQB SENO SNAPS
★3★38077%+39HELD
16
BRAYDEN FOWLER-NICOLOSIQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★34310%-50HELD
12
GILES POOLERQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—419%-54—
19
JACKSON STRATTONQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3284%—HELD
▾RB39TAL32PERF39RET33ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
AVERY MORROWRB SENO SNAPS
★3—9462%+9—
23
JAYLEN THOMASRB SERET
★2—6015%+12—
1
A'JON VIVENSRB SERET
UNR★35512%-45EMERGED
26
DAVID BAILEYRB SERET
★3★3477%-27HELD
33
KEEGAN HOLLESRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—344%——
38
SAMMY NORRISFB SENO SNAPS
UNR—210%——
28
DAVID AGGREYRB SERET
UNR—00%——
29
ALEX BERROUETRB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
38
MASON VEVERB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
28
VANN SCHIELDRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE29TAL49PERF35RET30ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 44 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
TORY HORTONWR SENO SNAPS
★3—9732%+33—
86
JUSTUS ROSS-SIMMONSWR SENO SNAPS
★3★39026%+37HELD
85
TANNER ARKINTE SERET
★3★38151%-27HELD
4
LOUIS BROWN IVWR SENO SNAPS
★3★37416%-57HELD
6
TY MCCULLOUCHWR SERET
★3★36611%+26HELD
5
MELQUAN STOVALLWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3618%-33HELD
16
JORDAN WILLIAMSTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★35721%-45HELD
84
GARY WILLIAMSTE SERET
★3—5519%+25—
18
MEKHI FOXWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★4453%—ROSE
81
DANE OLSONWR SERET
UNR—433%——
44
PETER MONTINITE SENO SNAPS
★3—396%——
2
JUSTICE MCCOYWR SERET
★3—301%——
81
THOMAS PANNUNZIOWR SERET
UNR—261%——
80
MATT GREENWALDWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—222%——
5
DANTE WRIGHTWR SERET
★3★3130%-21HELD
44
DRAKE MARTINEZTE SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
85
CLAY NANKEWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
3
E.J. SCOTTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
14
GERICK ROBINSONWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
80
DAMIR ABDULLAHTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
18
KY ODAY JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
19
DAWSON MENEGATTIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
34
COBY MCNEALTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL16TAL34PERF16RET0n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL42TAL38PERF42RET67n=11 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB29TAL33PERF29RET66n=6 · 10 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸DB61TAL44PERF61RET37n=7 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MEKHI FOXHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
DEANDRE GILLHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JACKSON STRATTONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
COREY LAMBERT JR.HS RECRUITS★3UNR
JORDAN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
BRAYDEN FOWLER-NICOLOSIHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
AUBREY SCOTTHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JUSTUS ROSS-SIMMONSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
REX HAYNESHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
LOUIS BROWN IVHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT22 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ELLISON HUBBARDSAM HOUSTONDL★3UNR
TODD CENTEIOJAMES MADISONQB★3UNR
BRIAN POLENDEYWEST VIRGINIATE★3UNR
RASHAD AJAYIWEST VIRGINIACB★3UNR
MIKE CIAFFONIRUTGERSOL★3★3
LOGAN STEWARTELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
MARCUS MCELROY JR.ELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
SCOTT PATCHANELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
JORDAN KRESSELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
CAMERON BUTLERELIGIBILITY UPTE★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#78NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8401COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST42% BACK42th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG42% BACK42th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST37%37th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE