SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2017 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›DUKE›2017TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2017 FINAL
ACC|DAVID CUTCLIFFE|—RECORD6-6|CONF—
DUKE37 FPIACC · 2017 SEASON
TALENT
70FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#471 BC / 23
BC RATIO
14%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2017 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.0
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
66MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HNORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL—W 60-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9HNORTHWESTERN#17W 41-17707979-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HBAYLOR—W 34-20744141+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ANORTH CAROLINA—W 27-17805757+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29HMIAMI#13L 6-31868787-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7AVIRGINIA—L 21-28654646+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HFLORIDA STATE—L 10-17979494-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HPITTSBURGH—L 17-24756363+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AVIRGINIA TECH#24L 3-24768484-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AARMY—L 16-2132929+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HGEORGIA TECH—W 43-20617070-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AWAKE FOREST—W 31-23517676-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
PARKER BOEHMEQB —RET
UNR—00%——
17
DANIEL JONESQB JURET
UNR—00%——
18
QUENTIN HARRISQB SERET
UNR—00%——
DANIEL KARLINQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET51NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
29
SHAUN WILSONRB —RET
UNR—00%——
4
MYLES HUDZICKRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
36
ELIJAH DEVEAUXRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
6
NICODEM PIERRERB SERET
UNR—00%——
4
DEON JACKSONRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
28
BRITTAIN BROWNRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
45
GRIFFIN CARTERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
47
RYAN WOLITZERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
20
MARVIN HUBBARD IIIRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
SCOTT BRACEYWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
82
CHRIS TAYLORWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
TREVON LEEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
19
QUAY CHAMBERSWR —RET
UNR—00%——
87
NOAH GRAYTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
80
DANIEL HELMTE SERET
UNR—00%——
5
JOHNATHAN LLOYDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
81
DAVIS KOPPENHAVERTE SERET
UNR—00%——
3
T.J. RAHMINGWR SERET
UNR—00%——
7
KEYSTON FULLERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
13
AARON YOUNGWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
MARK BIRMINGHAMTE SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
46
AARON WRIGHTTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
13
SAYVON SAMPSONWR —RET
UNR—00%——
37
MATT CLAYTONWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
46
BRONSON BRUNEAUTE —RET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS23 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DREW JORDANHS RECRUITWDE★4UNR
JAKE MARWEDEHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JACOB RIMMERHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
PATRICK LEITTENHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
DAMANI NEALHS RECRUITS★3UNR
WILL TAYLORHS RECRUITOC★3UNR
MICHAEL CARTER IIHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CHRIS KATRENICKHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
JOSH BLACKWELLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
DEON JACKSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT17 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOSEPH AJEIGBESACRAMENTO STATERBUNRUNR
MARQUIES PRICEELIGIBILITY UPDEUNR—
ZACH BODENNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
ANTHONY NASHNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
ERICH SCHNEIDERNOT LISTEDTEUNR—
A.J. WOLFNOT LISTEDDTUNR—
JELA DUNCANNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
CORBIN MCCARTHYNOT LISTEDSUNR—
DEVON EDWARDSNOT LISTEDSUNR—
THOMAS HENNESSYNOT LISTEDLSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#47NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8473COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST81% BACK81th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG81% BACK81th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE