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● LIVE|2022 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›DUKE›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
ACC|MIKE ELKO|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
DUKE45 FPIACC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
55FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
16%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#521 BC / 18
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs8.5-3.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+10.3
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE79
PERFORMANCE79
TALENT61
CONTINUITY16
DEFENSE61
PERFORMANCE61
TALENT61
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
41MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HTEMPLE—W 30-0452020+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10ANORTHWESTERN—W 31-23671616+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17HNORTH CAROLINA A&T—W 49-20————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 24AKANSAS—L 27-35505454+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1HVIRGINIA—W 38-17582828+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8AGEORGIA TECH—L 20-23792222+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15HNORTH CAROLINA—L 35-38896565-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22AMIAMI—W 45-21914242+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ABOSTON COLLEGE—W 38-31701313+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HVIRGINIA TECH—W 24-7632525+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19APITTSBURGH#22L 26-28687070-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26HWAKE FOREST—W 34-31526868-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28HUCF—W 30-13627373-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB80TAL95PERF80RET99ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
RILEY LEONARDQB SERET
★3★49399%+16ROSE
2
HENRY BELIN IVQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3131%—HELD
14
TY LENHARTQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
9
GAVIN SPURRIERQB SERET
UNR—00%——
10
HENRY BELVIN IVQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB58TAL65PERF58RET99ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
JORDAN WATERSRB SERET
★3★48845%+3ROSE
22
JAYLEN COLEMANRB SERET
★3—8033%-22—
9
JAQUEZ MOORERB SERET
★3★36922%+30HELD
25
RASHAWN ALLENRB SENO SNAPS
★2—91%——
13
TRAVIS BATESRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
29
GRISSIM ANDERSONRB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE44TAL57PERF53RET99ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
JORDAN MOOREWR SERET
★3—9527%+7—
81
NICKY DALMOLINTE SERET
★3—9263%-31—
5
JALON CALHOUNWR SERET
★3—9024%+32—
2
SAHMIR HAGANSWR SERET
★3—8722%-7—
82
COLE FINNEYTE JURET
★3—7333%-38—
4
ELI PANCOLWR SERET
★3—7314%+17—
1
JONTAVIS ROBERTSONWR SERET
★3—628%+4—
18
MALIK BOWEN-SIMSWR SERET
★3★3504%-60HELD
3
DARRELL HARDING JR.WR SERET
★3—402%-6—
80
MATT SMITHTE SERET
★3★3273%—HELD
88
ANDREW JONESTE SORET
★3—201%——
4
NICK LAMPERTWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
2
LUCA DIAMONTWR SORET
★3—00%——
15
JAKE TAYLORTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
3
ERIC WEATHERLYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
86
ERIC GALLMAN IIWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
JOE HARDISONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
46
MASON RUSSELLTE JURET
UNR—00%——
84
TREVOR HORTONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
10
JAMES HOPSON IIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
23
EDWIN BARNES IIIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
26
WILLIAM ROBERTSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
11
MEHKI WALLWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
85
JEREMIAH HASLEYTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
16
CADE ANDERSTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
87
HARRISON WELLMANNWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL59TAL50PERF59RET0n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL49TAL59PERF49RET77n=10 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸LB41TAL56PERF41RET70n=5 · 10 METRICS · 30 OBS
▸DB57TAL64PERF57RET55n=7 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
VINCENT ANTHONY JR.HS RECRUITDL★4UNR
STEVEN NAHMIASHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JADEN WATKINSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CHANDLER RIVERSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
MEHKI WALLHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KENZY PAULHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
NATHAN VAILHS RECRUITS★3UNR
WESLEY WILLIAMSHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HENRY BELIN IVHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
TRAVIS BATESHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT25 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GARY SMITH IIIUCLADL★3UNR
JAKE BOBOUCLAWR★3UNR
GUNNAR HOLMBERGFLORIDA INTERNATIONALQB★3UNR
NATE THOMPSONAKRONDB★3UNR
JEREMIAH LEWISNORTHWESTERNS★3UNR
LUMMIE YOUNG IVTULANESUNRUNR
JARETT GARNEREAST CAROLINAWR★3UNR
JAKE MARWEDEELIGIBILITY UPTE★3—
BEN FRYEELIGIBILITY UPDT★3—
JOHN TAYLORELIGIBILITY UPLS★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#52NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8607COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST33% BACK33th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG33% BACK33th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST55%55th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE