SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2021 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›FRESNO STATE›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
PAC-12|KALEN DEBOER|—RECORD9-3|CONF—
FRESNO STATE53 FPIPAC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
41FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#740 BC / 22
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
9-3ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+13.3
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
41MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HUCONN—W 45-01511+75BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1SEP 4AOREGON#22L 24-31957171+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HCAL POLY—W 63-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 18AUCLA—W 40-37846969+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HUNLV—W 38-30221212+64BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2AHAWAI'I—L 24-27243434+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 16AWYOMING—W 17-0134141+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23HNEVADA—W 34-32294949+27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30ASAN DIEGO STATE#25W 30-20316262+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6HBOISE STATE—L 14-40506969+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13HNEW MEXICO—W 34-71988+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25ASAN JOSÉ STATE—W 40-9263535+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET93NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
JAYLEN HENDERSONQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
9
JAKE HAENERQB SERET
★3—00%——
4
LOGAN FIFEQB SERET
★2★300%—ROSE
19
JOSEPH CAMPBELLQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET91NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
RONNIE RIVERSRB SERET
★2—00%——
7
JORDAN MIMSRB SERET
★2—00%——
23
JORDAN WILMORERB JUPORTAL · UTAH
★4★300%—FELL
23
MALIK SHERRODRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
28
JEVON BIGELOWRB SERET
UNR★200%—EMERGED
23
JORDAN HORNBEAKRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
0
JOHNATHAN ARCENEAUXRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
TY JONESWR SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON
★3★300%—HELD
2
ZANE POPEWR SERET
★3—00%——
5
JALEN MORENO-CROPPERWR SERET
★4—00%——
87
RAYMOND PAUWELSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
84
TRE WATSONTE SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
81
JORDAN BROWNWR JURET
★3—00%——
3
ERIK BROOKSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
4
EMORYIE EDWARDSWR SERET
★3—00%——
MAC DALENAWR SERET
★3—00%——
1
KERIC WHEATFALLWR SERET
★2—00%——
80
JUAN RODRIGUEZTE SERET
UNR—00%——
3
JOSH KELLYWR SERET
★3★400%—ROSE
89
JARED TORRESTE SERET
UNR—00%——
17
RODNEY WRIGHT IIIWR JURET
★3—00%——
86
MATT LOWETE SERET
★3—00%——
88
RORY HANSONTE JURET
UNR—00%——
81
JORDAN BROWNWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
15
KAMRON BEACHEMTE SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
84
TRE WATSONTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
85
DONOVAN WILLIAMSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN HORNBEAKHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JALEN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JAYLEN HENDERSONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
BRAYLEN NELSONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JA'QUEZ HARVEYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
KAMRON BEACHEMHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JOHNATHAN ARCENEAUXHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CALE SANDERSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JULIUS LEWISHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ROLAN FULLWOODHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN WILMOREUTAHRB★4★3
TY JONESWASHINGTONWR★3★3
ELIJAH GATESUCLACB★4★4
RYAN BOEHMCAL POLYEDGE★3★3
EVAN BENNETTOREGON STATEDL★3★3
ISAAC GARCIAOREGON STATEOLB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT14 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LEEVEL TATUM IIIARIZONADL★3UNR
CHRIS COLEMANCAL POLYWR★2★2
JAMAL GLASPIENORTHERN ARIZONAWR★3★3
BEN WOOLDRIDGEELIGIBILITY UPQB★2—
JACOB HOLLINSELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
SAEVION JOHNSONELIGIBILITY UPRB★2—
KURTIS BROWNNOT LISTEDDL★3—
NIKKO THOMASNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
CHRIS GASTONNOT LISTEDDB★3—
ALEX CRUZNOT LISTEDDEUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#74NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8394COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
813 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST96% BACK96th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG96% BACK96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR93%93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE