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● LIVE|2017 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2017 FINAL
SUN BELT|SHAWN ELLIOTT|—RECORD6-5|CONF—
GEORGIA STATE112 FPISBC · 2017 SEASON
TALENT
27FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1050 BC / 19
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2017 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
6-5ACTUALvs3.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-5.7
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE11 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
31MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HTENNESSEE STATE—L 10-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16APENN STATE#8L 0-56869696-83BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ACHARLOTTE—W 28-0911+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7ACOASTAL CAROLINA—W 27-214———NON-FBS OPPONENT
7OCT 14AUL MONROE—W 47-37141414-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HTROY—L 10-34264949-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 21-13341717-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 21-17281010+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ATEXAS STATE—W 33-30822+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HAPP STATE—L 10-31215555-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2HIDAHO—L 10-24————NON-FBS OPPONENT
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
CONNER MANNINGQB —RET
UNR—00%——
11
AARON WINCHESTERQB JURET
UNR—00%——
2
JAQUEZ PARKSQB SERET
UNR—00%——
14
JACK WALKERQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
13
DAN ELLINGTONQB SERET
★3—00%——
16
JOSHUA SHIMQB —RET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET82NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
KYLER NEALRB —RET
UNR—00%——
17
GLENN SMITHRB —RET
UNR—00%——
38
DEMARCUS KIRKRB SERET
UNR—00%——
8
TAZ BATEMANRB SERET
UNR—00%——
5
TRA BARNETTRB SERET
★2—00%——
23
DARIUS STUBBSRB JURET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
ROGER CARTERTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
46
JACOB NESMITHTE —RET
UNR—00%——
12
EMIERE SCAIFETE —RET
UNR—00%——
15
TODD BOYDWR —RET
UNR—00%——
18
PENNY HARTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
ARI WERTSTE —RET
UNR—00%——
14
DEVIN GENTRYWR SERET
★2—00%——
6
JONATHAN IFEDIWR SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
7
TAMIR JONESWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
85
CHRISTIAN OWENSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
CAMRIN KNIGHTTE SERET
UNR—00%——
86
BRYSON DUCKWORTHTE JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
80
MATLIN MARSHALLWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
4
JAWAN NOBLESWR JURET
★2—00%——
19
KERRYON RICHARDSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
87
DONAVON GRIERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
DIONDRE CHAMPAIGNEWR JURET
★3—00%——
82
CHANCELLOR TRIPLETTWR —RET
UNR—00%——
28
MAHZE MCQUEENWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
CHRISTIAN CUMBERLANDERWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
MICHAEL KOUASSITE —RET
UNR—00%——
87
CAMRYN JOHNSONWR —NO SNAPS
★2—00%——
1
KENDRICK DORNWR —RET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CONNOR ROBBINSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JACK WALKERHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
JAYLON JONESHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JALEN JACKSONHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
PAT BARTLETTHS RECRUITOC★3UNR
CHRIS BACONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ROGER CARTERHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
TAMIR JONESHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CHRIS SIBILIAHS RECRUITOT★2UNR
KERRYON RICHARDSONHS RECRUITATH★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT17 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ROBERT DAVISNFL DRAFT R6WRUNR—
KALEB RINGERNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
ANDREW EVERETTNOT LISTEDOLBUNR—
ROBERT DOWLINGNOT LISTEDCBUNR—
TRENT HILLNOT LISTEDSUNR—
JAMEEL SPENCERNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
KEITH RUCKERNOT LISTEDTEUNR—
TEVIN JONESNOT LISTEDDEUNR—
CARNELL HOPSONNOT LISTEDDEUNR—
WILL CUNNINGHAMNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#105NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.7955COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST86% BACK86th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG86% BACK86th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE