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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SUN BELT|DELL MCGEE|—RECORD1-11|CONF—
GEORGIA STATE129 FPISBC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
45FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
32%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
49%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#670 BC / 26
BC RATIO
11%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
1-11ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-18.1
1 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE27
PERFORMANCE27
TALENT36
CONTINUITY32
DEFENSE14
PERFORMANCE14
TALENT43
CONTINUITY49
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
50MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30AOLE MISS#3L 7-63859696-94BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HMEMPHIS—L 16-38587272-70BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HMURRAY STATE—W 37-21————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20AVANDERBILT#15L 21-70619393-91BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HJAMES MADISON#19L 7-1488181-79BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HAPP STATE—L 20-41431919-17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 24-41332424-22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 23HSOUTH ALABAMA—L 31-38261616-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8ACOASTAL CAROLINA—L 27-40421111-9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HMARSHALL—L 18-30363737-35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ATROY—L 19-31283636-34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AOLD DOMINION—L 10-27126464-62BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB64TAL34PERF64RET17ROTATIONn=3 · 8 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
TJ FINLEYQB JUPORTAL · TULANE
★3★37543%+8HELD
8
CAMERAN BROWNQB SEPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
UNR★37440%+14EMERGED
11
CHRISTIAN VEILLEUXQB SERET
★3★36317%-19HELD
7
PJ HATTERQB SOPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
★3★300%—HELD
14
TJ STANLEYQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
12
JADON OLAFSSONQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB48TAL64PERF48RET13ROTATIONn=5 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
JORDON SIMMONSRB SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★3★39041%+14HELD
30
RASHAD AMOSRB SEPORTAL · MEMPHIS
★3★37018%+1HELD
22
BRANSON ROBINSONRB JUPORTAL · GEORGIA
★4★36514%-44FELL
0
DENNIS MURRAY JR.RB SORET
★3—6313%-7—
2
DJAY BRASWELLRB SOPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
★4★45910%-57HELD
21
TJ PEYTONRB FRTRUE FR
★3★3434%+11HELD
32
LADAINNIAN MARTINRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
20
JAMAL BING JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
28
PHOENIX MOSSRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
25
TAYO ASHADELERB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
33
TY MCKEYRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
34
TIMOTHE DORCERB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE52TAL51PERF53RET40ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 57 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
TED HURSTWR SERET
UNR★49829%+30EMERGED
0
JAVON ROBINSONWR SEPORTAL · GRAMBLING
UNR★39728%-3EMERGED
88
LANE WADLETE JURET
★3★37830%-31HELD
85
GRANT HOLLIERTE SONO SNAPS
★3—7729%+43—
3
LEO BLACKBURNWR SEPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
★4★37714%+9FELL
0
CAMDEN OVERTON-HOWARDTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—7525%-14—
13
DERRICK AVERY JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3—689%-62—
4
KYLE WASHINGTONWR SONO SNAPS
★3—658%-55—
81
AVION MCBRIDETE SERET
★3—6113%-18—
10
DJ RILESWR SERET
★3★3605%-14HELD
16
JAYLIN MARSHALLWR SEPORTAL · SHORTER
★4★3534%—FELL
86
KERON MILTONWR SORET
UNR—503%——
6
WESLEY CAMPBELL VITE SENO SNAPS
UNR—332%——
18
D'ONTAE FULTONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—110%——
87
AUSTIN MCGEEWR SORET
★3—60%——
36
CHRIS MANUELTE JURET
UNR—40%——
17
ZAIRE THORNTONWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
80
AHMED SOUAREWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
83
JAMARI MILLERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
81
MYLES ABERNATHYWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
84
BREYLEN GILBERTTE SORET
UNR—00%——
89
AMARI POWELLWR SORET
★2—00%——
38
KHALIL QUINNWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
44
KYLE MULLENIXTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL16PERF50RET35n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL33TAL43PERF33RET57n=10 · 7 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸LB30TAL47PERF30RET35n=7 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB54TAL42PERF54RET56n=11 · 8 METRICS · 60 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KELAN BUTLERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KYLE WASHINGTONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DERRICK AVERY JR.HS RECRUITATH★3UNR
LADAINNIAN MARTINHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JARTAVIUS FLOUNOYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TJ PEYTONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
GRANT HOLLIERHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
D'ONTAE FULTONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ZION LAWSONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
CHANDLER JORDANHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRANSON ROBINSONGEORGIARB★4★3
JORDON SIMMONSOLE MISSRB★3★3
TYLER SCOTTAUBURNCBUNR★3
RASHAD AMOSMEMPHISRB★3★3
BERNARD CAUSEY IIILSUCB★3★3
TJ FINLEYTULANEQB★3★3
JAVON ROBINSONGRAMBLINGWRUNR★3
RICHARD KRAMERHAMPTONEDGEUNR★3
MARLIN DEANUTAH STATEEDGE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT43 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TREVOR TIMMONSUTSAOL★3★3
JY GILMOREGEORGIA TECHDBUNR★3
LAMAR ROBINSONCALIFORNIAOLUNR★3
IZAIAH GUYSOUTH FLORIDAS★3★3
DORIAN FLEMINGMARYLANDTE★3★3
PETEY TUCKERCOLORADO STATEWRUNR★3
FREDDIE BROCK IVOKLAHOMA STATERB★3UNR
CAM WILLIAMSMICHIGAN STATEEDGE★3UNR
CHRISTIAN LORENZOILLINOIS STATEDL★2★3
ZACH GIBSONFLORIDA ATLANTICQB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES90%10 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS69%12 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#67NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8477COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2737 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST74% BACK74th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG74% BACK74th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR35%35th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR17%17th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST56%56th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE