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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|TIMMY CHANG|—RECORD3-10|CONF—
HAWAI'I129 FPIMWC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
26FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
12%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1260 BC / 16
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-10ACTUALvs2.7-10.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-14.9
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE6
PERFORMANCE6
TALENT19
CONTINUITY12
DEFENSE1
PERFORMANCE1
TALENT38
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 27HVANDERBILT—L 10-63593535-33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1SEP 3HWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 17-49425050-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10AMICHIGAN#3L 10-56919999-97BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17HDUQUESNE—W 24-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 24ANEW MEXICO STATE—L 26-4571212-10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8ASAN DIEGO STATE—L 14-16183636-34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15HNEVADA—W 31-162444-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22ACOLORADO STATE—L 13-172755-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29HWYOMING—L 20-27112424-22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5AFRESNO STATE#24L 13-55445555-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HUTAH STATE—L 34-41171717-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HUNLV—W 31-25152222-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26ASAN JOSÉ STATE—L 14-27253737-35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB50TAL52PERF50RET82ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
BRAYDEN SCHAGERQB SERET
★3★39082%-28HELD
18
JOEY YELLENQB SENO SNAPS
★4★35718%-51FELL
12
CAMMON COOPERQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
4
JAKE FARRELLQB SERET
UNR—00%——
16
ARMANI EDDENQB SERET
UNR—00%——
14
CONNOR APOQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾RB49TAL27PERF49RET89ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
31
DEDRICK PARSONRB SERET
UNR—9678%+18—
22
NASJZAE BRYANT-LELEIRB SERET
UNR—6017%+17—
1
TYLAN HINESRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3524%+40HELD
11
JORDAN JOHNSONRB SORET
★3★3375%+22HELD
30
LANDON SIMSRB SERET
UNR—00%——
10
DAVID CORDERORB SERET
UNR—00%——
38
KAMALU DEBLAKERB JURET
★2—00%——
43
RONSON YOUNGRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
20
KEITH MOTON IIIRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
33
BROCK HEDANIRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
38
ROBBIE PAIKAIRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE29TAL14PERF32RET69ONE OWNERn=12 · 8 METRICS · 64 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
CALEB PHILLIPSTE SERET
★2—9758%-15—
6
ZION BOWENSWR SERET
UNR—8318%+16—
7
JORDAN MURRAYTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—8131%-41—
4
JALEN WALTHALLWR SORET
UNR★38117%-15EMERGED
9
DIOR SCOTTWR SERET
UNR—7413%-33—
8
TAMATOA MOKIAO-ATIMALALAWR SERET
★3—7413%-33—
1
JONAH PANOKEWR SERET
★3—6810%+15—
3
JAMES PHILLIPSWR SERET
UNR—638%-18—
3
NICK CENACLEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—565%-12—
84
CHUUKY HINESWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—524%-37—
23
KOALI NISHIGAYAWR SERET
★2★2524%-20HELD
80
KAMUELA BORDENTE SERET
★2—508%——
9
STEVEN FISOWR SERET
★3—463%——
17
GREYSON MORGANTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—343%——
81
GREY IHUWR SERET
UNR—301%——
9
ALEX PERRYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3281%—HELD
45
KILA KAMAKAWIWO'OLETE SERET
★2—00%——
87
DEVON TAUAEFATE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
11
KARSYN PUPUNUWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
CHAD OWENS JR.WR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
5
POFELE ASHLOCKWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
ISAIAH SHIZURUWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL58TAL5PERF58RET0n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL30TAL34PERF31RET48n=11 · 7 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB25TAL16PERF25RET64n=4 · 9 METRICS · 26 OBS
▸DB37TAL44PERF37RET20n=10 · 6 METRICS · 52 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALAKI TE'OHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JUNIOR TAASE FAUMUIHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ALEX PERRYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DEREK BOYDHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
DYLAN GEBBIAHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DEVON TAUAEFAHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KONA MOOREHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ISAIAH MALLOEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
MALACHI FINAUHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DEAN BRISKIHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JUSTUS TAVAISAN DIEGO STATEDL★3UNR
DARIUS MUASAUUCLALB★4UNR
KHOURY BETHLEYARIZONA STATEDB★3UNR
CHEVAN CORDEIROSAN JOSÉ STATEQB★2UNR
JONAH LAULUOKLAHOMADL★2UNR
CAM LOCKRIDGEFRESNO STATEDBUNRUNR
DAE DAE HUNTERLIBERTYRB★3UNR
NICK MARDNERCINCINNATIWR★2★3
CORTEZ DAVISELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
COLBY BURTONELIGIBILITY UPDB★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#126NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8218COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST28% BACK28th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG28% BACK28th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR82%82th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST20%20th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE