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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SUN BELT|SONNY CUMBIE|—RECORD5-8|CONF—
LOUISIANA TECH109 FPISBC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
26FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1130 BC / 12
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-5
AVG SCORING MARGIN+1.7
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE1
PERFORMANCE1
TALENT46
CONTINUITY62
DEFENSE39
PERFORMANCE39
TALENT43
CONTINUITY62
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
30MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HNICHOLLS—W 25-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14ANC STATE—L 20-30725959-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HTULSA—L 20-233355+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—L 10-17201717+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 10HMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 48-211922+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 15ANEW MEXICO STATE—L 30-33777+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 22HUTEP—W 14-101233+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 29ASAM HOUSTON—L 3-9182727-9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 37-4484545-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AWESTERN KENTUCKY—W 12-7234242-24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AARKANSAS—L 14-35828383-65BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HKENNESAW STATE—W 33-0522+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28AARMY#21L 6-2717373-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB19TAL38PERF19RET91ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
EVAN BULLOCKQB SORET
★3★38274%+30HELD
10
JACK TURNERQB JURET
UNR—5917%-30—
5
BLAKE BAKERQB JURET
★3—469%+38—
19
MASON WELCHQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB38TAL27PERF38RET15ROTATIONn=5 · 9 METRICS · 24 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
OMIRI WIGGINSRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★38740%-22EMERGED
25
AMANI GIVENSRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—7119%-37—
22
MARQUIS CROSBYRB SERET
★3★36615%-17HELD
10
DONERIO DAVENPORTRB SEPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
UNR★36414%-1EMERGED
24
FRED ROBERTSONRB SONO SNAPS
★3★36112%-51HELD
10
PRINCETON CAHEERB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
36
RILEY SMALLRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE51TAL62PERF49RET63ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
TRU EDWARDSWR SERET
UNR★49732%+29EMERGED
84
ELI FINLEYTE SERET
★3—9273%+10—
6
JIMMY HOLIDAYWR SEPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
★3★38220%+15HELD
18
ABDUL-FATAI IBRAHIMWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—8018%-46—
2
SOLO LEWISWR JURET
★3★3669%+30HELD
5
MARLION JACKSONWR SERET
★3★3659%+19HELD
47
JAY WILKERSONWR SERET
★3★3638%+35HELD
0
HUNTER TIPTONTE SENO SNAPS
UNR★35615%—EMERGED
44
JOHN LOCKE JR.TE SERET
★3★35112%—HELD
17
NATE JONESWR SERET
★2—331%-32—
14
DAKOTA WILLIAMSWR JURET
★3★3291%—HELD
3
DEDRICK LATULASWR JURET
★3—130%——
3
TAMARCUS GRAY JR.WR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
8
DEVONTA LEEWR SERET
★4—00%-52—
83
KENDRICK RUCKERTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
15
JALEN MCGAUGHYWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%+19HELD
89
CHASE LOCKEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
13
SHADEED AHMEDWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★200%-16EMERGED
28
BUD HOLLOWAYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
85
ADEM MADISEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
27
LANDRY WYATTWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
31
BRAYDEN CURRYWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
8
JAY SIMONWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▸OL22TAL37PERF22RET65n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL37TAL43PERF37RET94n=10 · 7 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸LB47TAL51PERF48RET27n=5 · 11 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸DB42TAL38PERF42RET78n=9 · 6 METRICS · 45 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TAMARCUS GRAY JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ALONZO JACKSON JR.HS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JACOB BRADFORDHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JADON MAYFIELDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
LUKE WISHAMHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
FRED ROBERTSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CYLER CORNHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
COLE WATSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAY SIMONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
AUSTIN ELLISHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ASHANTI COLEGRAMBLINGOTUNR★3
DONERIO DAVENPORTTEXAS STATERBUNR★3
JORDYN MORGANUNLVS★3★3
ZARIAN MCGILLUL MONROEIOLUNR★3
BLAKE THOMPSONIOWA STATESUNR★3
MEKHI MASONSYRACUSELB★3★3
DANIEL KEYSSTEPHEN F. AUSTINOTUNR★3
SIFA LEOTANORTH TEXASLBUNR★3
JAMARCUS JONESUABLB★3★3
JIMMY HOLIDAYWESTERN KENTUCKYWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT33 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CARSON BRUNOTCUOL★3★3
DAKOTA WHITEHOUSTONOL★3★3
BREVIN RANDLEUTSALBUNR★3
CYRUS ALLENTEXAS A&MWR★3★3
HANK BACHMEIERWAKE FORESTQB★4★3
KYLE MAXWELLWASHINGTON STATEWR★3★3
JULIEN LEWISGRAMBLINGWRUNRUNR
MATTHEW MCCALLISTERMCNEESEWRUNRUNR
JESLORD BOATENGELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
ABRAHAM DELFINELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES81%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS74%12 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#113NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 12 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8317COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1222 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST27% BACK27th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG27% BACK27th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR65%65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR91%91th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST78%78th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE