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HOME›TEAMS›MISSISSIPPI STATE›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
SEC|MIKE LEACH|—RECORD7-5|CONF—
MISSISSIPPI STATE36 FPISEC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
80FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-14IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#255 BC / 20
BC RATIO
21%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.7
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
67MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4HLOUISIANA TECH—W 35-34451717+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HNC STATE#20W 24-10769090-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 18AMEMPHIS—L 29-31534343+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25HLSU—L 25-28975050+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2ATEXAS A&M—W 26-22969696-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 16HALABAMA#2L 9-491009898-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23AVANDERBILT—W 45-65966+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30HKENTUCKY#18W 31-17798383-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6AARKANSAS#21L 28-31808484-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13AAUBURN—W 43-34917878-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20HTENNESSEE STATE—W 55-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
13NOV 25HOLE MISS#11L 21-31818888-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET62NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
WILL ROGERSQB JURET
★3—00%——
9
CHANCE LOVERTICHQB SEPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
UNR★300%—EMERGED
13
JACK KRISTOFEKQB SOPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON
UNR—00%——
3
DANIEL GREEKQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET85NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
WOODY MARKSRB SERET
★4★400%—HELD
28
JANARI DEANRB SORET
★3—00%——
7
DILLON JOHNSONRB JURET
★3★400%—ROSE
32
J.J. JERNIGHANRB SERET
UNR—00%——
22
OMNI WELLSRB SERET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
AUSTIN WILLIAMSWR SERET
★3—00%——
6
JAMIRE CALVINWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★400%——
5
LIDEATRICK GRIFFINWR SERET
★4★400%—HELD
10
MAKAI POLKWR JUPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★3★300%—HELD
11
JADEN WALLEYWR SERET
★3—00%——
82
RUFUS HARVEYWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
8
MALIK HEATHWR SERET
★3—00%——
4
CALEB DUCKINGWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
24
CHRISTIAN FORDEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
CARSON BANKSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
89
BRODIE KINGWR JURET
UNR—00%——
7
RARA THOMASWR SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
25
BRAD CUMBESTWR JURET
★3—00%——
83
QUINTON TORBORWR SORET
★3—00%——
18
TEDDY KNOXWR SONO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
20
TRIP WILSONWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
87
BO BROOKSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SAWYER ROBERTSONHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
JOHN LEWISHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
TEDDY KNOXHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
ANTONIO HARMONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
KE'TRAVION HARGROVEHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
DEONTE ANDERSONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JACOBI MOOREHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
SIMEON PRICEHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
RARA THOMASHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CANON BOONEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RANDY CHARLTONUCFDL★3★3
JALEN GREENTEXASCB★4★3
MAKAI POLKCALIFORNIAWR★3★3
JACK ABRAHAMSOUTHERN MISSQB★3★3
JAMIRE CALVINWASHINGTON STATEWRUNR★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT17 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GEOR'QUARIUS SPIVEYTCUTE★3★3
GARRETT SHRADERSYRACUSEQB★4★3
TYRELL SHAVERSSAN DIEGO STATEWR★4★3
JAVONTA PAYTONTENNESSEEWR★3★3
MARQUISS SPENCERNFL DRAFT R7DE★4—
KYLIN HILLNFL DRAFT R7RB★4—
LEE WITHERSPOONELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
JAMES JACKSONELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
K.J. COSTELLOELIGIBILITY UPQB★4—
R.J. JENNINGSELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#25NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
5OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8674COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
822 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST62% BACK62th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG62% BACK62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR62%62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE