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● LIVE|2019 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2019 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|KEN NIUMATALOLO|—RECORD10-2|CONF—
NAVY#20 AP 40 FPIAAC · 2019 SEASON
TALENT
14FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1240 BC / 31
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2019 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs9.3-2.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+15.8
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
50MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HHOLY CROSS—W 45-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14HEAST CAROLINA—W 42-10391111+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 26AMEMPHIS#17L 23-35498888-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HAIR FORCE#22W 34-2558181-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ATULSA—W 45-17314444+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HSOUTH FLORIDA—W 35-3502121+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HTULANE—W 41-38427070+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AUCONN—W 56-102833+74BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16ANOTRE DAME#12L 20-52918686-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HSMU—W 35-28546464+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AHOUSTON—W 56-41613737+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 14HARMY—W 31-774545+32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET24NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
MALCOLM PERRYQB SERET
UNR—00%——
19
DALEN MORRISQB SERET
★2—00%——
5
JEREMIAH BOYDQB JURET
★2—00%——
9
MAASAI MAYNORQB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET44NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
CARLINOS ACIERB SERET
★2—00%——
22
CHIKE OTALUKARB SERET
★3—00%——
CHANCE WARRENRB SERET
★2—00%——
37
JAMES HARRIS IIFB SERET
UNR—00%——
32
ISAAC RUOSSFB SERET
UNR—00%——
24
JUSTIN SMITHRB SERET
★3—00%——
2
TYGER GOSLINRB SERET
★3—00%——
20
DANIEL TAYLORRB SERET
★3—00%——
34
JAMALE CAROTHERSFB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
20
CJ WILLIAMSRB SERET
★2—00%——
23
MYLES FELLSRB SERET
★2—00%——
43
NELSON SMITHFB SERET
UNR—00%——
28
DEVON HIGHRB JURET
★2—00%——
35
JOSH JOHNSONRB SORET
★3—00%——
35
MIKE MAUAIFB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
COLBY JACQUESRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
33
JONATHON LEEFB SERET
★3—00%——
40
GAVIN MARTSRB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
39
BRANDON MADISONFB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
MYCHAL COOPERWR SERET
★3—00%——
25
TAZH MALOYWR SERET
UNR—00%——
22
TRAVIS BRANNANWR SERET
★2—00%——
86
OJ DAVISWR SERET
★2—00%——
85
ALEKSEI YARAMUSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
87
RYAN MITCHELLWR SERET
★2—00%——
28
KEONI-KORDELL MAKEKAUWR SERET
★2—00%——
80
MARK WALKERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
GARRETT WINNWR SERET
★2—00%——
21
TYREEK KING-ELWR SERET
★2—00%——
83
MARCELL GLEATONWR SERET
★2—00%——
82
EMMETT DAVISWR SERET
★2—00%——
89
CHASE PARRISHWR SERET
★2—00%——
15
KODY CRIDERWR JURET
★2—00%——
84
TANNER MATTHEWSWR SERET
★3—00%——
85
MICHAEL SALISBURYWR SERET
★2—00%——
88
CAL LONGWR SERET
★2—00%——
81
TYSHAWN BUCKNERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
7
JOE CARTERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
DEVIN MATHEWSWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
82
ZACHARY KUHLMANWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
ETHAN BIBBWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
81
MICHAEL NAZEWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
86
CHRISTIAN HUTCHINSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
JOHN AMELLWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TAUSILI FIATOAHS RECRUITOLB★3UNR
WYATT TERLAAKHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
B.J. GIBSONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TAYLOR HARRISHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
SEAN SIMMSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TYLER KINGHS RECRUITILB★3UNR
KENDEL TAYLORHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MAASAI MAYNORHS RECRUITDUAL★3UNR
KAMRON LOVEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JOSEPH CARTERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SEAN WILLIAMSELIGIBILITY UPCB★2—
ZACH ABEYELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
TORY DELMONICOELIGIBILITY UPOLBUNR—
CAMERON DUDECKELIGIBILITY UP?UNR—
ANTHONY GARGIULOELIGIBILITY UPFBUNR—
JOHN GILLISELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
JUAN HAILEYELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
TAYLOR HEFLINELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
TAYLOR JACKSONELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
ELIJAH JONESELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#124NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 31 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.7886COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
34TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
7
6
6
9
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.8 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED15 OF 34
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST44% BACK44th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG44% BACK44th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR24%24th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE