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● LIVE|2021 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›NAVY›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|KEN NIUMATALOLO|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
NAVY101 FPIAAC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
7FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1070 BC / 32
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
4-8ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-8.2
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
58MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4HMARSHALL—L 7-49366161-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HAIR FORCE—L 3-2315959-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25AHOUSTON#17L 20-28537777-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2HUCF—W 34-30655353-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9HSMU—L 24-31556666-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AMEMPHIS—L 17-35534343-21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23HCINCINNATI#4L 20-27639797-75BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29ATULSA—W 20-17395353-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6ANOTRE DAME#8L 6-34929292-70BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20HEAST CAROLINA—L 35-38454040-18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27ATEMPLE—W 38-144377+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 11AARMY—W 17-1355252-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET19NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
XAVIER ARLINEQB SERET
UNR—00%——
1
TAI LAVATAIQB SERET
UNR—00%——
9
MAASAI MAYNORQB SERET
★3—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET19NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
CARLINOS ACIERB SERET
★2—00%——
CHANCE WARRENRB SERET
★2—00%——
37
JAMES HARRIS IIFB SERET
UNR—00%——
32
ISAAC RUOSSFB SERET
UNR—00%——
35
MIKE MAUAIFB SERET
UNR—00%——
21
KAI PUAILOA-ROJASRB SERET
★2—00%——
29
DANIEL JONESRB SERET
★2—00%——
34
ANTON HALL JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
28
MAQUEL HAYWOODRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
2
TYGER GOSLINRB SERET
★3—00%——
20
DANIEL TAYLORRB SERET
★3—00%——
22
CHIKE OTALUKARB SERET
★3—00%——
26
COLBY JACQUESRB JURET
UNR—00%——
6
MALCOLM TERRY IIRB SERET
★2—00%——
40
KHALIL CRAWFORDFB SERET
UNR—00%——
31
CHRIS SMITHFB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
28
AMIN HASSANRB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
MYCHAL COOPERWR SERET
★3—00%——
87
JAYDEN UMBARGERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
81
COLIN O'CONNORWR SERET
UNR—00%——
87
D.J. DONOVANTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
MARK WALKERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
83
MARCELL GLEATONWR SERET
★2—00%——
85
MICHAEL SALISBURYWR SERET
★2—00%——
88
CAL LONGWR SERET
★2—00%——
82
ZACHARY KUHLMANWR SERET
UNR—00%——
81
MICHAEL NAZEWR SERET
★3—00%——
86
CHRISTIAN HUTCHINSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
83
JOHN AMELLWR SERET
UNR—00%——
91
JACKSON BOYERWR JURET
★2—00%——
15
JOHN MEAGHERWR SERET
★2—00%——
89
CAMARI WILLIAMSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
23
VINCENT TERRELL JR.WR JURET
UNR—00%——
80
AKALEA KAPONOTE SERET
★2—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JARED BEHRENSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
TYLER GASKINHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BRODY CRANEHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
PATRICK TURNERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
RODERIC LEWISHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JAKE LUSKHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
TYLER NARAYANHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
NASIR ROBINSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MATTEO BIANCHIHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
NATHAN ROACHHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT20 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAMALE CAROTHERSWESTERN KENTUCKYFB★3★3
DEVIN MATHEWSELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
IAN BLAKEELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
RYAN MITCHELLELIGIBILITY UPWR★2—
KYLE GIBBSELIGIBILITY UPLS★2—
JUSTIN SMITHELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
AUSTIN TALBERT-LOVINGELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
EVAN FOCHTMANELIGIBILITY UPS★2—
CJ WILLIAMSELIGIBILITY UPRB★2—
MYLES FELLSELIGIBILITY UPRB★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#107NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 32 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8005COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
07 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST33% BACK33th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG33% BACK33th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR19%19th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
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