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● LIVE|2019 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›OREGON STATE›2019TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2019 FINAL
PAC-12|JONATHAN SMITH|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
OREGON STATE60 FPIPAC · 2019 SEASON
TALENT
59FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#660 BC / 20
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2019 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-1.3
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
61MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HOKLAHOMA STATE—L 36-52727373-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7AHAWAI'I—L 28-31294747+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HCAL POLY—W 45-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 28HSTANFORD—L 28-31863333+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AUCLA—W 48-31854040+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HUTAH#16L 7-52669191-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ACALIFORNIA—W 21-17644343+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AARIZONA—W 56-38552323+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HWASHINGTON—L 7-19878888-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HARIZONA STATE—W 35-34776767-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AWASHINGTON STATE—L 53-54507979-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AOREGON#5L 10-24888989-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET59NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
TRISTAN GEBBIAQB SERET
★4★300%—FELL
6
JAKE LUTONQB SERET
UNR—00%——
18
NICK MOOREQB JURET
★2★200%—HELD
4
AIDAN WILLARDQB SORET
★3—00%——
9
JACKSON CHRYSTQB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET91NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
B.J. BAYLORRB JURET
UNR—00%——
21
ARTAVIS PIERCERB SERET
★3—00%——
6
JERMAR JEFFERSONRB JURET
★3—00%——
23
TA'RON MADISONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
4
CALVIN TYLER JR.RB SERET
★3—00%——
32
MIKEY ALFIERIRB SORET
UNR—00%——
30
KASE ROGERSRB SORET
UNR—00%——
29
KANOA SHANNONRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
CONNOR MORTONRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
2
CALVIN TYLER, JR.RB —RET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KOLBY TAYLORWR JURET
★3—00%——
7
CHAMP FLEMINGSWR SERET
★3—00%——
86
ANDRE BODDENWR SERET
UNR—00%——
8
TREVON BRADFORDWR SERET
★3—00%——
13
JESIAH IRISHWR SERET
★3—00%——
84
TEAGAN QUITORIANOTE JURET
★3—00%——
88
LUKE MUSGRAVETE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
87
RILEY SHARPTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
81
NOAH TOGIAITE SERET
UNR—00%——
17
ISAIAH HODGINSWR JURET
★4—00%——
1
TYJON LINDSEYWR SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
19
AARON SHORTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
45
RALPH TAUFA'ASAUTE JURET
UNR—00%——
87
BRYCE BRAMSCHERTE JURET
UNR—00%——
89
JACK HOLUMTE SORET
UNR—00%——
10
ISAIAH SMALLSTE SORET
UNR—00%——
6
I'SHAWN STEWARTWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
8
RWEHA MUNYAGI JR.WR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
49
MITCHELL MCCULLOUGHTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
2
ANTHONY GOULDWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
44
CAM SANDERSTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
82
JOB DOCKERYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
83
ROCCO CARLEYTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
OMAR SPEIGHTSHS RECRUITILB★3UNR
TARON MADISONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
LUKE MUSGRAVEHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JOJO FORESTHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
EVAN BENNETTHS RECRUITDT★3UNR
AKILI ARNOLDHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
WYNSTON RUSSELLHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CORY STOVERHS RECRUITSDE★3UNR
KELSEN HENNESSYHS RECRUITDT★3UNR
RYAN FRANKEHS RECRUITOLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT16 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DWAYNE WILLIAMSSAM HOUSTONCBUNRUNR
CONOR BLOUNTEASTERN KENTUCKYQBUNRUNR
ISAIAH TUFAGAELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
SUMNER HOUSTONELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
DREW KELLELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
CONNOR KELSEYELIGIBILITY UPLSUNR—
ADAM SOESMANELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
KALANI VAKAMEILALOELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
JONATHAN WILLISELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
TIMMY HERNANDEZELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#66NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8334COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST76% BACK76th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG76% BACK76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR59%59th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE