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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2020 FINAL
PAC-12|JONATHAN SMITH|—RECORD2-5|CONF—
OREGON STATE64 FPIPAC · 2020 SEASON
TALENT
63FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#530 BC / 15
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2020 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
2-5ACTUALvs2.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-4.4
2 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE7 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
74MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
10NOV 7HWASHINGTON STATE—L 28-38466262-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 14AWASHINGTON—L 21-27888282-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 21HCALIFORNIA—W 31-27576060-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27HOREGON—W 41-38889393-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 5AUTAH—L 24-30748383-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 12HSTANFORD—L 24-27865555-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
16DEC 19HARIZONA STATE—L 33-46858181-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET14NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
TRISTAN GEBBIAQB SERET
★4★300%—FELL
15
CHANCE NOLANQB SENO SNAPS
★2★300%—ROSE
15
BEN GULBRANSONQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
18
NICK MOOREQB JURET
★2★200%—HELD
4
AIDAN WILLARDQB SORET
★3—00%——
9
JACKSON CHRYSTQB FRRET
★2—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET56NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
B.J. BAYLORRB JURET
UNR—00%——
32
MIKEY ALFIERIRB SORET
UNR—00%——
6
JERMAR JEFFERSONRB JURET
★3—00%——
23
TA'RON MADISONRB FRRET
★3—00%——
4
CALVIN TYLER JR.RB SERET
★3—00%——
21
TREY LOWERB JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
30
KASE ROGERSRB SORET
UNR—00%——
9
ISAIAH NEWELLRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
29
KANOA SHANNONRB JURET
UNR—00%——
36
CONNOR MORTONRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
42
LOGAN HORTONRB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KOLBY TAYLORWR JURET
★3—00%——
7
CHAMP FLEMINGSWR SERET
★3—00%——
8
TREVON BRADFORDWR SERET
★3—00%——
13
JESIAH IRISHWR SERET
★3—00%——
84
TEAGAN QUITORIANOTE JURET
★3—00%——
8
ZERIAH BEASONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
88
LUKE MUSGRAVETE JURET
★3—00%——
87
RILEY SHARPTE SERET
★3—00%——
87
JAKE OVERMANTE SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
TRE'SHAUN HARRISONWR SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
1
TYJON LINDSEYWR SERET
★4—00%——
86
ANDRE BODDENWR SERET
UNR—00%——
19
AARON SHORTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
45
RALPH TAUFA'ASAUTE JURET
UNR—00%——
87
BRYCE BRAMSCHERTE JURET
UNR—00%——
89
JACK HOLUMTE SORET
UNR—00%——
10
ISAIAH SMALLSTE SORET
UNR—00%——
6
I'SHAWN STEWARTWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
8
RWEHA MUNYAGI JR.WR SERET
UNR—00%——
49
MITCHELL MCCULLOUGHTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
2
ANTHONY GOULDWR JURET
★3—00%——
80
TREVOR POPEWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
44
CAM SANDERSTE FRRET
★3—00%——
82
JOB DOCKERYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
83
ROCCO CARLEYTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
11
SILAS BOLDENWR SENO SNAPS
★3★400%—ROSE
86
MALIK KELLEYTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISAIAH NEWELLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
BEN GULBRANSONHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
ZERIAH BEASONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JOHN MILLERHS RECRUITILB★3UNR
JUNIOR WALLINGHS RECRUITILB★3UNR
SIONE LOLOHEAHS RECRUITSDE★3UNR
SILAS BOLDENHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAKE OVERMANHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
COOPER DARLINGHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
TREVOR POPEHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT4 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAKE LUTONNFL DRAFT R6QBUNR—
ISAIAH HODGINSNFL DRAFT R6WR★4—
NOAH TOGIAIELIGIBILITY UPTEUNR—
ARTAVIS PIERCEELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#53NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8454COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST37% BACK37th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG37% BACK37th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR14%14th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE