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● LIVE|2021 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
PAC-12|JONATHAN SMITH|—RECORD7-5|CONF—
OREGON STATE52 FPIPAC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
66FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1080 BC / 14
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.8
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
51MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4APURDUE—L 21-30677373-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HHAWAI'I—W 45-27243434+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 18HIDAHO—W 42-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 25AUSC—W 45-27933838+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2HWASHINGTON—W 27-24883636+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9AWASHINGTON STATE—L 24-31565757+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23HUTAH#12W 42-34788888-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30ACALIFORNIA—L 25-39724848+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6ACOLORADO—L 34-37662020+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13HSTANFORD—W 35-14831919+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20HARIZONA STATE—W 24-10828181-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27AOREGON#22L 29-38957171-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET40NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
CHANCE NOLANQB SERET
★2★300%—ROSE
15
SAM VIDLAKQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
6
SAM NOYERQB SEPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★300%—HELD
13
TRISTAN GEBBIAQB SERET
★4★300%—FELL
9
JACKSON CHRYSTQB FRRET
★2—00%——
15
BEN GULBRANSONQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET15NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
ISAIAH NEWELLRB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
4
B.J. BAYLORRB JURET
UNR—00%——
21
TREY LOWERB JURET
★4—00%——
32
MIKEY ALFIERIRB SORET
UNR—00%——
29
KANOA SHANNONRB JURET
UNR—00%——
1
DESHAUN FENWICKRB SEPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
★3★300%—HELD
23
TA'RON MADISONRB FRRET
★3—00%——
42
LOGAN HORTONRB FRRET
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
CHAMP FLEMINGSWR SERET
★3—00%——
8
TREVON BRADFORDWR SERET
★3—00%——
13
JESIAH IRISHWR SERET
★3—00%——
84
TEAGAN QUITORIANOTE JURET
★3—00%——
8
ZERIAH BEASONWR JURET
★3—00%——
88
LUKE MUSGRAVETE JURET
★3—00%——
87
RILEY SHARPTE SERET
★3—00%——
2
ANTHONY GOULDWR JURET
★3—00%——
0
JOHN DUNMOREWR SENO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
11
SILAS BOLDENWR SERET
★3★400%—ROSE
TRE'SHAUN HARRISONWR SERET
★4—00%——
1
TYJON LINDSEYWR SERET
★4—00%——
5
KOLBY TAYLORWR JURET
★3—00%——
45
RALPH TAUFA'ASAUTE JURET
UNR—00%——
87
BRYCE BRAMSCHERTE JURET
UNR—00%——
8
RWEHA MUNYAGI JR.WR SERET
UNR—00%——
87
JAKE OVERMANTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
80
TREVOR POPEWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
86
MALIK KELLEYTE SORET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAMIR COLLINSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
EASTON MASCARENAS-ARNOLDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
SAM VIDLAKHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JASON WHITEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JIMMY VALSIN IIIHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
J.T. BYRNEHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
ORION MAILE-KAUFUSIHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
OMARION FA’AMOEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ARNEZ MADISONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HENRY BUCKLESHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ELIJAH JONESKANSASCBUNR★3
HENELI BLOOMFIELDUTAH STATEOG★2★3
DESHAUN FENWICKSOUTH CAROLINAAPB★3★3
MAKIYA TONGUEGEORGIAWR★4★3
SAM NOYERCOLORADOQB★3★3
KEONTE SCHADMINNESOTADLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT8 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CALVIN TYLER JR.UTAH STATERB★3UNR
EVAN BENNETTFRESNO STATEDL★3★3
JERMAR JEFFERSONNFL DRAFT R7RB★3—
NAHSHON WRIGHTNFL DRAFT R3DBUNR—
CALEB LIGHTBOURNELIGIBILITY UPP★3—
HAMILCAR RASHED JR.ELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
ISAIAH DUNNELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
ISAAC GARCIANOT LISTEDDL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#108NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8499COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
614 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST76% BACK76th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG76% BACK76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR40%40th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE