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HOME›TEAMS›OREGON STATE›2024TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
PAC-12|TRENT BRAY|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
OREGON STATE96 FPIPAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
47FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-9IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#871 BC / 16
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
5-7ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-5.7
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE27
PERFORMANCE27
TALENT67
CONTINUITY68
DEFENSE14
PERFORMANCE14
TALENT49
CONTINUITY62
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
43MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HIDAHO STATE—W 38-15————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7ASAN DIEGO STATE—W 21-0451111+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HOREGON#3L 14-49969999-71BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HPURDUE—W 38-21741010+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HCOLORADO STATE—W 39-31303030-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ANEVADA—L 37-42231313+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HUNLV#23L 25-33397474-46BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26ACALIFORNIA—L 7-44665959-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HSAN JOSÉ STATE—L 13-24163232-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AAIR FORCE—L 0-2811717+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HWASHINGTON STATE—W 41-38464949-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ABOISE STATE#8L 18-34457979-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB70TAL64PERF70RET32ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
GEVANI MCCOYQB SEPORTAL · IDAHO
★3★37458%+1HELD
15
BEN GULBRANSONQB SERET
★3★36632%+6HELD
5
GABARRI JOHNSONQB SOPORTAL · MISSOURI
★3★44510%-41ROSE
13
JAKE SANDERSQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
DOM MONTIELQB SORET
★3—00%——
16
KALLEN GUTRIDGEQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB53TAL67PERF53RET2ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
ANTHONY HANKERSONRB SEPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★39969%-16HELD
8
JAM GRIFFINRB SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★4★37016%+3FELL
7
SALAHADIN ALLAHRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★36613%-23HELD
34
JAKE REICHLERB SERET
★3—232%+37—
21
DYONTAE NAVARRETERB SERET
UNR—00%——
21
CORNELL HATCHER JR.RB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE48TAL71PERF45RET81ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
84
JERMAINE TERRY IITE SERET
★4★39962%-19FELL
4
TRENT WALKERWR SERET
UNR★39634%+28EMERGED
15
JEREMIAH NOGAWR SERET
UNR★38826%-7EMERGED
8
BRYCE CAUFIELDTE SERET
UNR—8129%-5—
2
TAZ REDDICKSWR JURET
★3★37417%+8HELD
4
DARRIUS CLEMONSWR SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN
★4★37316%-8FELL
1
DAVID WELLS JR.WR JURET
★3★3566%-24HELD
82
GABE MILBOURNTE SERET
UNR—497%——
85
COOPER JENSENTE SORET
★3—312%——
0
JORDAN ANDERSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3231%—HELD
14
JAILEN HOLMESWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
12
ZACK CARDWR SORET
★3★300%——
2
JIMMY VALSIN IIIWR SERET
★3★300%+15HELD
41
JHAE DRUMMERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
17
MALACHI DURANTWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
9
JAMAI EASTWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
19
MONTREL HATTEN JR.WR FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
22
JOEL VALADEZWR JURET
UNR—00%——
18
KARSON BOSCHMAWR SERET
UNR—00%——
14
EDDIE FREAUFFWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
86
TY MAYTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
80
CARSON KOLBTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
TJ ZIMMERMANNTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL67PERF54RET67n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL36TAL50PERF36RET59n=6 · 7 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸LB33TAL54PERF33RET57n=9 · 11 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸DB38TAL45PERF38RET49n=11 · 6 METRICS · 52 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS9 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN ANDERSONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
MALACHI DURANTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
EXODUS AYERSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
SHAMAR MEIKLEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
EDDIE FREAUFFHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
DYLAN SIKORSKIHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DEXTER FOSTERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
SALAHADIN ALLAHHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CORNELL HATCHERHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN16 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KOBE SINGLETONLIBERTYCB★3★3
DARRIUS CLEMONSMICHIGANWR★4★3
ANTHONY HANKERSONCOLORADORB★3★3
GABARRI JOHNSONMISSOURIQB★3★3
GEVANI MCCOYIDAHOQB★3★3
VAN WELLSCOLORADOIOL★3★3
TYGEE HILLLSUDL★3★3
TEVITA POME'EOREGONDL★3★3
GERAD CHRISTIAN-LICHTENHANCOLORADOOT★3★3
SAI VADRAWALE IIICALIFORNIACBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT39 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TANNER MILLERMICHIGAN STATEOLUNR★3
EASTON MASCARENAS-ARNOLDUSCLB★3★4
AKILI ARNOLDUSCS★3★3
SIONE LOLOHEAFLORIDA STATEDL★3★4
JACK VELLINGMICHIGAN STATETE★3★4
JERMOD MCCOYTENNESSEEDB★3★4
DAMIEN MARTINEZMIAMIRB★3★4
DJ UIAGALELEIFLORIDA STATEQB★5★4
SILAS BOLDENTEXASWR★3★4
JOHN MILLERUTAH STATELB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES98%10 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS84%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#87NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8430COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1625 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST8% BACK8th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG8% BACK8th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR67%67th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR32%32th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST49%49th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE