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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|PHIL LONGO|—RECORD2-10|CONF—
SAM HOUSTON135 FPICUSA · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
11FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
59%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
32%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1220 BC / 12
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
2-10ACTUALvs1.7-10.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-20.1
2 wins against a scoring profile describing 1.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE1
PERFORMANCE1
TALENT44
CONTINUITY59
DEFENSE4
PERFORMANCE4
TALENT41
CONTINUITY32
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 23AWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 24-41285050-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
1AUG 29HUNLV—L 21-38645959-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6AHAWAI'I—L 20-37135050-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20ATEXAS#12L 0-55988888-87BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 2ANEW MEXICO STATE—L 10-3761010-9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 9HJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 27-29203333-32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 15HUTEP—L 17-352755-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 31ALOUISIANA TECH—L 14-55164444-43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AOREGON STATE—W 21-175777-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HDELAWARE—W 26-2342020-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AMIDDLE TENNESSEE—L 17-312077-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—L 16-56292121-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB39TAL71PERF39RET48ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
HUNTER WATSONQB SERET
UNR★27548%-8EMERGED
8
LANDYN LOCKEQB SONO SNAPS
★3—7032%-49—
MABREY METTAUERQB SOPORTAL · WISCONSIN
★4★36218%-15FELL
15
DJ BAILEYQB JURET
★3—151%——
17
NOAH NORMANDQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB45TAL23PERF45RET0ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
LANDAN BROWNRB SERET
★3—8743%+11—
22
ALTON MCCASKILLRB SEPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
★3★37728%-12HELD
21
ELIJAH GREENRB SEPORTAL · INDIANA
★3★37424%+18HELD
28
SHANE PORTERRB SEPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
UNR★3313%+30EMERGED
6
JERRIAN PARKER JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
★3—212%——
38
ADRIAN MURDAUGHRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—91%-31—
41
TREY TAYLORRB JURET
★3—00%——
25
AH'MARION GAINES-SMITHRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
XANDER CHEEKRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE25TAL30PERF28RET38ONE OWNERn=10 · 7 METRICS · 52 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
GRADY O'NEILLWR SEPORTAL · WISCONSIN
UNR★28619%-7EMERGED
3
TIM BURNS JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—8418%-44—
2
CHRIS REEDWR SENO SNAPS
★3★38116%+18HELD
11
MALIK PHILLIPSWR SERET
UNR—8016%-26—
7
QUA'VEZ HUMPHREYSWR SERET
UNR—7513%+21—
12
AUSTIN SMITHTE SERET
★3★37147%-40HELD
0
DARRICK BLEDSOE IIIWR SERET
UNR—678%-52—
83
DYLAN BURKTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—6434%-26—
4
MICHAEL PHOENIX IIWR SERET
UNR★3575%-10EMERGED
1
AVIYON SMITH-MACKWR SEPORTAL · LIU POST
UNR★3575%-51EMERGED
19
RAY LOTTENTE JUPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
UNR★25315%—EMERGED
5
LONNIE ADKISMWR SORET
★3★3412%—HELD
86
THOMAS JEWETTTE JURET
★3—284%——
89
FERNANDO GARZA IIITE SERET
★3★300%-47HELD
2
KALEB BLACKWR SOPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
★3★300%—HELD
82
COOPER STEVENSTE JURET
★3—00%——
18
FATU MUKUBAWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
84
LONDON DEYONWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
83
MATTHEW TATUMWR SERET
UNR—00%——
88
TERRENCE GUILLORY IIWR JURET
UNR—00%——
▸OL30TAL52PERF30RET82n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL40TAL31PERF40RET22n=9 · 7 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸LB34TAL25PERF34RET33n=7 · 11 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸DB39TAL48PERF39RET24n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS9 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LANDYN LOCKEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
BRAYLEN WORTHAMHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JAX BROWNHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
LOGAN CAHILLHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ANTHONY SHORTERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
CAIUS COYHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
LONDON DEYONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAYVEON JOHNSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
GRACESON SPANNHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN16 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CJ BROWNBOWLING GREENS★3★3
MABREY METTAUERWISCONSINQB★4★3
TREY HARRISCORNELLSUNR★3
JERRIAN PARKERSOUTHERN ILLINOISRBUNR★3
KEELAN COXTEXAS SOUTHERNEDGEUNR★3
SHANE PORTERNORTH TEXASRBUNR★3
AVIYON SMITH-MACKLIU POSTWRUNR★3
KALEB BLACKARIZONA STATEWR★3★3
ELIJAH GREENINDIANARB★3★3
ALTON MCCASKILLARIZONA STATERB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT44 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISAIAH CASHVIRGINIA TECHSUNR★3
CALEB WEAVERDUKESUNR★3
DAVID FISHERNORTH TEXASCBUNR★3
TREY FIELDSNORTH TEXASLBUNRUNR
DA'VEAWN ARMSTEADNORTH TEXASCB★3★3
ORION IRVINGVANDERBILTOLUNR★3
CHRIS MURRAYAUBURNDL★3UNR
RICHARD OUTLAND JR.NORTH TEXASDLUNR★3
BRICEON HAYESNORTH TEXASDL★3★3
DENVER WARRENUABDL★3UNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES67%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS82%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#122NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 12 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8358COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2633 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST96% BACK96th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG96% BACK96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR82%82th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR48%48th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST24%24th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE