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● LIVE|2021 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
ACC|SONNY DYKES|—RECORD8-4|CONF—
SMU44 FPIACC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
55FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#531 BC / 17
BC RATIO
12%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+10.0
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
43MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4HABILENE CHRISTIAN—W 56-9————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 11HNORTH TEXAS—W 35-12422828+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 18ALOUISIANA TECH—W 39-37451717+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25ATCU—W 42-34753838+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2HSOUTH FLORIDA—W 41-17471616+50BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9ANAVY—W 31-2472222+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HTULANE—W 55-26373232+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30AHOUSTON#17L 37-44537777-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6AMEMPHIS—L 25-28534343+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13HUCF—W 55-28655353+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20ACINCINNATI#4L 14-48639797-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27HTULSA—L 31-34395353+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
TANNER MORDECAIQB SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★4★400%—HELD
8
PRESTON STONEQB SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
12
DEREK GREENQB SERET
★3—00%——
18
JACOB OEHRLEINQB JURET
UNR—00%——
14
JOSH STUPINQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET76NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
BRANDON EPTON JR.RB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
31
TYLER LAVINERB SERET
★2—00%——
24
ULYSSES BENTLEY IVRB SERET
★3—00%——
4
TRE SIGGERSRB SEPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
★3★300%—HELD
25
BLAKE BEDWELLRB SORET
UNR—00%——
25
TJ MCDANIELRB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
26
MONTAYE DAWSONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
32
ORLANDO JONESRB SERET
UNR—00%——
26
ZANE MINORSRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
81
BEN REDDINGTE SERET
UNR—00%——
83
SIMON GONZALEZTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
86
TOMMY MCINTYRETE SERET
UNR—00%——
6
AUSTIN UPSHAWWR SERET
★3—00%——
9
BEAU BARKERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
GRANT CALCATERRATE SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★4★300%—FELL
21
REGGIE ROBERSON JR.WR SERET
UNR—00%——
5
DANNY GRAYWR SERET
★3—00%——
18
DYLAN GOFFNEYWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
11
RASHEE RICEWR SERET
★3—00%——
13
RODERICK DANIELS JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
14
NOLAN MATTHEWS-HARRISTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
1
JORDAN KERLEYWR SEPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
★3★300%—HELD
0
DJ ROGERSTE SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
15
CALVIN WIGGINSWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
82
PARKER STONEWR SORET
★2—00%——
44
STONE EBYTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
4
JAYLEEN RECORDWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
30
CARTER CAMPBELLWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
GAGE HASKINTE JURET
UNR—00%——
84
ALEX QUIRKTE JURET
UNR—00%——
83
SIMON GONZALEZTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%——
33
HUDSON SHRUMWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
CROSS KITTRELLWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
MICHAEL MADDENWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
MATTHEW MCLAUGHLINTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
44
SAM MORSETE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PRESTON STONEHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
ISAIAH NWOKOBIAHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DYLAN GOFFNEYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JE'LIN SAMUELSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
RODERICK DANIELS JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MONTAYE DAWSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
BRANDON EPTON JR.HS RECRUITRB★3UNR
BRAYLEN JACKSONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JADARIUS THURSBYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JAYDEN JONESHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TANNER MORDECAIOKLAHOMADUAL★4★3
GRANT CALCATERRAOKLAHOMATE★4★3
ISAAC SLADE-MATAUTIAOREGONLB★4★3
CHARLES WOODSILLINOIS STATECBUNR★3
TRE SIGGERSNORTH TEXASRB★3★3
THALEN ROBINSONMISSOURIOT★3★3
STEPHON WRIGHTARIZONA STATEDL★4★4
JAHARI ROGERSFLORIDACB★4★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT15 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KYLEN GRANSONNFL DRAFT R4TE★2—
BRANDON STEPHENSNFL DRAFT R3DB★3—
TAMERIK WILLIAMSELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
TYLER PAGEELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
DARREN BROWNELIGIBILITY UPDT★3—
RICHARD MCBRYDEELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
JACOB PUGHELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
CHRISTIAN DAVISELIGIBILITY UPCB★3—
SHANE BUECHELEELIGIBILITY UPQB★4—
ARMANDO FITZNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#53NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8580COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
149 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST47% BACK47th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG47% BACK47th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE