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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
ACC|FRAN BROWN|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
SYRACUSE99 FPIACC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
76FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
56%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#421 BC / 35
BC RATIO
15%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs2.6-9.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN-14.8
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE27
PERFORMANCE27
TALENT64
CONTINUITY56
DEFENSE39
PERFORMANCE39
TALENT61
CONTINUITY57
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
71MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30ATENNESSEE—L 26-45898787-71BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HUCONN—W 27-20306161-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 12HCOLGATE—W 66-24————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20ACLEMSON—W 34-21967676-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HDUKE—L 3-38586868-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4ASMU—L 18-31828484-68BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HPITTSBURGH—L 13-30607474-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AGEORGIA TECH—L 16-41727575-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10OCT 31HNORTH CAROLINA—L 10-27783333-17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AMIAMI#2L 10-38909494-78BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ANOTRE DAME#10L 7-70949797-81BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HBOSTON COLLEGE—L 12-34502929-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB51TAL87PERF51RET0ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
RICKIE COLLINSQB JUPORTAL · LSU
★4★47546%-42HELD
9
STEVE ANGELIQB SEPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
★4★37135%+34FELL
13
JOSEPH FILARDIQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—6217%-53—
17
LUKE CARNEYQB SONO SNAPS
★3★3262%—HELD
4
JAKHARI WILLIAMSQB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
16
RICH BELINQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB45TAL52PERF45RET91ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
24
WILL NIXONRB SERET
★3★39249%-24HELD
6
YASIN WILLISRB JURET
★3★38436%-25HELD
22
JADEN HARTRB SORET
★3★3476%-34HELD
20
TYLIK HILLRB SONO SNAPS
★3—465%+10—
28
MALACHI COLEMANRB FRTRUE FR
★3—262%——
3
DAVION KERRRB SONO SNAPS
★3—181%——
21
MALACHI JAMESRB JURET
★3★360%—HELD
31
TYLER CHANDLERRB SORET
UNR—00%——
38
MAX RUNYONFB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE48TAL68PERF49RET73ONE OWNERn=10 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
89
DAN VILLARITE SERET
★3—9866%+22—
15
DARRELL GILL JR.WR SERET
UNR★49629%+18EMERGED
0
JOHNTAY COOK IIWR SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON
★5★39225%+3FELL
86
JUSTUS ROSS-SIMMONSWR SERET
★3★37212%+27HELD
0
DAVID CLEMENTTE SERET
★3—6921%——
0
JAYLAN HORNSBYWR SORET
★3★36810%-16HELD
14
EMANUEL ROSSWR FRRET
★4★3637%0FELL
7
DARIEN WILLIAMSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—585%-9—
8
TYSHAWN RUSSELLWR JUPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
★3★3544%-4HELD
84
ELIJAH WASHINGTON-BAKERTE SORET
★3—537%——
85
GABE DANIELSWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3483%—HELD
19
DAUNTE BACHEYIETE SONO SNAPS
★3—444%——
26
TA'RON HAILEWR FRRET
★3★3381%—HELD
30
CHASE SIMMONSTE SERET
★3★3261%—HELD
88
TERRELL WILFONGWR FRTRUE FR
★3—140%——
2
UMARI HATCHERWR SERET
★3★360%+31HELD
32
NICK ARMENTANOWR SORET
UNR—00%——
87
WYATT BOWMANTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
23
JA'MEER THOMASWR FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
83
JULIAN MCFADDENWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
42
RUBIN WASSERMANTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
85
SEAN MURPHYWR SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
87
NATE EDWARDSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL56PERF51RET55n=8 · 3 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DL48TAL59PERF48RET55n=10 · 7 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸LB53TAL53PERF53RET58n=9 · 11 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸DB62TAL68PERF62RET62n=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEMETRES SAMUEL JR.HS RECRUITS★4UNR
KAYLIB SINGLETONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DARIEN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
QUANTE GILLIANSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HALEEM MUHAMMADHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TERRELL WILFONGHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JULIAN MCFADDENHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAVON LAWRENCEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
GABE DANIELSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JORDAN GIBBSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TJ FERGUSONFLORIDA STATEIOL★4★4
JOHNTAY COOKWASHINGTONWR★5★3
KAM PRINGLESOUTH CAROLINAIOL★4★3
STEVE ANGELINOTRE DAMEQB★4★3
RICKIE COLLINSLSUQB★4★3
AUSTIN COLLINSLOUISVILLEIOL★3★3
ZACH RICENORTH CAROLINAIOL★5★3
CHRIS PEALGEORGIACB★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
J'ONRE REEDUSCOLUNR★4
TREBOR PENAPENN STATEWR★3★4
MARAAD WATSONTEXASDL★3★4
JAYDEN BELLAMYUCFDB★3★3
MARCELLUS BARNES JR.SMUCB★4★3
JAEDEN GOULDUCFS★4★4
ENRIQUE CRUZ JR.KANSASOL★3★3
LYSANDER MOEOLOTEXAS STATEOL★3★3
XAVIER MILESCHARLOTTEDL★3★3
MICHAEL JOHNSON JR.AKRONQB★3UNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES80%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS78%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#42NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 35 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8616COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1626 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST13% BACK13th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG13% BACK13th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR55%55th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST62%62th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE