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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|DANA DIMEL|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
UTEP121 FPIMWC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
18FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
84%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
70%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1210 BC / 12
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-8.6
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE22
PERFORMANCE22
TALENT35
CONTINUITY84
DEFENSE10
PERFORMANCE10
TALENT34
CONTINUITY70
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
42MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 26AJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 14-1764747-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
1SEP 2HINCARNATE WORD—W 28-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9ANORTHWESTERN—L 7-38634848-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16AARIZONA#11L 10-31708787-79BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HUNLV—L 28-45145555-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29HLOUISIANA TECH—L 10-24241616-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 27-143444+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HNEW MEXICO STATE—L 7-28174545-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ASAM HOUSTON—W 37-3471414-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 13-21364545-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AMIDDLE TENNESSEE—L 30-34352424-16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HLIBERTY#25L 28-4297575-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB14TAL72PERF14RET43ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
CADE MCCONNELLQB SERET
★3—7155%+27—
2
GAVIN HARDISONQB SERET
UNR—6743%+9—
10
JAKE MCNAMARAQB SORET
★3—172%——
14
ZACH RODRIGUEZQB JURET
UNR—00%——
16
SETH MOUSERQB FRTRUE FR
★3★200%—FELL
▾RB43TAL54PERF43RET79ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
33
DEION HANKINSRB SERET
★3★38342%+9HELD
4
TORRANCE BURGESS JR.RB JURET
UNR★37937%-10EMERGED
24
MIKE FRANKLINRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★35612%-44EMERGED
22
EZELL JOLLYRB SENO SNAPS
★3★3446%-52HELD
20
DARYON TRICHERB SONO SNAPS
★2—252%——
34
XAVIER JOHNSONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
21
AARON DUMASRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
28
CARTRAVEN WALKERRB JURET
UNR—00%——
35
ZACHARY ESSIHFB SORET
UNR—00%——
28
JOSHUA DYERB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▾WR/TE29TAL32PERF39RET75ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
87
ZACH FRYARTE SERET
UNR—9253%+24—
1
KELLY AKHARAIYIWR SERET
UNR★39031%+33EMERGED
13
JEREMIAH BALLARDWR JURET
★3★38829%+15HELD
8
EMARI WHITEWR JURET
UNR—6513%-40—
88
MARCUS VINSONTE SENO SNAPS
★3★36418%-37HELD
10
TYRIN SMITHWR SERET
UNR★36110%+30EMERGED
43
JULIAN LOPEZTE SERET
★2—5914%——
81
ELIJAH BOYDTE JUNO SNAPS
★2★35612%—ROSE
18
MARCUS BELLONWR SERET
UNR—547%-3—
9
JOSTEIN CLARKEWR JURET
UNR—484%-47—
82
KYLE MCNAMARAWR JURET
★2★2382%—HELD
2
JAVONI GARDEREWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—362%——
82
JUDAH EZINWATE SENO SNAPS
UNR—323%——
86
LUCAS FLORESWR JURET
UNR—150%——
82
LUKE SEIBTE JURET
★3★3131%—HELD
85
YAMIL OAXACAWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—60%——
46
KHEAGIAN HECKAMANTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
10
KEVIN HURLEYWR SERET
UNR—00%——
15
DRE SPRIGGSWR SOPORTAL · UTSA
★3★300%—HELD
18
RYAN GONZALESWR SORET
UNR—00%——
81
JALILE BOSTWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
80
JACKSON WENGWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
26
CADEN HARRISWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
30
MICHAEL WHITAKERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
83
JAMAL MUHAMMADWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL53TAL28PERF53RET94n=8 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL49TAL23PERF49RET67n=12 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB46TAL29PERF46RET84n=2 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DB46TAL42PERF46RET62n=11 · 6 METRICS · 51 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EZELL JOLLYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
TYRONE MCDUFFIEHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DASHAWN ADAMSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
QU'RAN GOSSETTHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
SETH MOUSERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JOSIAH DYEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JAKE UTLEYHS RECRUITOT★2UNR
JACKSON WENGHS RECRUITWRUNRUNR
ZACHARY ESSIHHS RECRUITTEUNRUNR
JOSHUA DYEHS RECRUITRBUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN2 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DRE SPRIGGSUTSAWR★3★3
AJ ODUMSNEW MEXICOCB★2★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JEREMIAH BYERSFLORIDA STATEOL★3★4
LUKE SOTOMARSHALLTEUNR★2
DENNIS BARNESELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
TY'REKE JAMESELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
JADRIAN TAYLORELIGIBILITY UPDEUNR—
KELTON MOSSELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
TRENT THOMPSONELIGIBILITY UPTE★2—
REYNALDO FLORESELIGIBILITY UPRBUNR—
RONALD AWATTELIGIBILITY UPRB★2—
BLAKE THOMPSONELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES52%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS42%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#121NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 12 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8192COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
25 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
27TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
6
10
5
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-4 TO +8 W
IMPROVED9 OF 27
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST66% BACK66th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG66% BACK66th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR94%94th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR43%43th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST62%62th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE