SAT 15:00 ET|CENTENNIAL BANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP31|O/U59.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
40
5-7
7
43
26
56%
57
—
32.3
-205
-5.5
HOME
32
8-5
38
26
2
86%
89
—
26.8
+170
+5.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALODU40—ARST32
CLOSED ODU -5.5TOTAL 59.0ODU COVERED · 72 POINTS · OVER
ODU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ARST
ODU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ARST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=67
MARKET
TOTAL59.0
SPREADODU -5.5
IMPLIED — ODU32.3
IMPLIED — ARST26.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
66FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 67-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
ODURECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.0-6.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME0.0
OLD DOMINION won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARSTRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.4
ARKANSAS STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROLD DOMINIONARKANSAS STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB83%Keshawn WicksPORTAL · FLORIDA A&M · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKadarius CallowayPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONObie SanniPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB82%Tahj Ra-ElPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShawn Asbury IIPORTAL · INDIANA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLaMareon JamesPORTAL · TCU · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL58%Chris AdamsPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeroy ThomasOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier BlackOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE44%Reymello MurphyPORTAL · ARIZONA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavon HarveyPORTAL · DUKE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAhmarian GrangerPORTAL · AKRON · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB37%Wayne Matthews IIIPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSayyid StevensLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL34%Jahlil TaylorDT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen SatchellPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin Brandt-EppsPORTAL · NEW MEXICO · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB14%Jack ShieldsPORTAL · BUFFALO · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAaron Young · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSBryce Duke · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHREFILLED
DBWill Jones II · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDAPatrick Smith-Young · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASAngelo Rankin Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · RICHMOND4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLColin Henrich · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEZach Barlev · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISAnthony Patt · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEPat Conroy · PORTAL ★3 · MERRIMACKDiante Vines · PORTAL ★3 · IOWAJustin McKithen · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTIC2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLChris Forbes · SIGNEE ★3Ahmaad Foster · SIGNEE ★3Taysean Stevenson · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBEmmett Morehead · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEQuinn Henicle · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OLD DOMINION
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.433 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
45.336 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
44.033 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5050612653 OF 5 GRADED
RB5151632574 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE515136461711 OF 17 GRADED
OL363637452013 OF 20 GRADED
DL36364688149 OF 14 GRADED
LB474733861414 OF 14 GRADED
DB494933392416 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE7th7
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%15
RECRUITING CLASS#125 · 0/17 BC7
CLASS RANK TREND-19 · 3 CYCLES12
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 15 IN / 32 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARSTBUTCH JONES4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3131
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ODURICKY RAHNE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESODU OFFENSEARST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOLD DOMINION OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE ODU QUARTERBACKSn=574% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOLD DOMINION OFFENSEFRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE ODU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2055% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOLD DOMINION OFFENSEFRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE ODU RUNNING BACKSn=775% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS47% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554150%4%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOLD DOMINION OFFENSESECONDARYARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE ODU PASS CATCHERSn=1754% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−24
+13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.0%
56.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.9%
66.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ODU, ORANGE = ARST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE