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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGEPRESEASON · NO CHARTED PLAY
SUN BELT|BUTCH JONES|—RECORD1-1|CONF—
ARKANSAS STATE105 FPISBC · 2026 SEASON
TALENT
34FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
28%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
21%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-13IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#850 BC / 21
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
No scoring record for this season yet, so there is nothing to compare the win-loss record against.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT50
CONTINUITY28
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT42
CONTINUITY21
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE2 PLAYED · 10 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
50MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
25MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
-25REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 5AMEMPHIS—L 24-42525050-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 12HWEST GEORGIA—W 52-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 19ATCU—UPCOMING727777-50HARDEST REMAINING TIER
4SEP 26HKENNESAW STATE—UPCOMING42020+7STILL TO COME
5OCT 3ALOUISIANA—UPCOMING283434-7STILL TO COME
6OCT 8HSOUTH ALABAMA—UPCOMING232020+7STILL TO COME
7OCT 17ASOUTHERN MISS—UPCOMING321111+16STILL TO COME
8OCT 24HGEORGIA STATE—UPCOMING2333+24STILL TO COME
10NOV 7HUL MONROE—UPCOMING400+27STILL TO COME
11NOV 14ACOASTAL CAROLINA—UPCOMING242121+6STILL TO COME
12NOV 21ALOUISIANA TECH—UPCOMING103838-11STILL TO COME
13NOV 28HTROY—UPCOMING3127270STILL TO COME
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB54TAL64PERF54RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 5 METRICS · 5 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
TREY OWENSQB JUPORTAL · TEXAS
★4★381100%+32FELL
7
DREW DICKEYQB SEPORTAL · VANDERBILT
★3★300%—HELD
6
ETHAN CRAWFORDQB SERET
★3★300%-13HELD
12
JEREMY ST-HILAIREQB JUPORTAL · VANDERBILT
★3★300%—HELD
20
MASON SCHUBERTQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB26TAL24PERF26RET81ONE OWNERn=2 · 4 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KENYON CLAYRB SERET
★3★36781%-5HELD
22
EZELL JOLLYRB SENO SNAPS
★3★31319%-49HELD
23
SOLOMON BAGGETTRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
20
TIMOTHY CARTERRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
27
JAMES LEERB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
8
COREY REDDICKRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
4
DEVIN SPENCERRB JURET
★3—00%+2—
30
DAMON SISARB JURET
UNR—00%——
24
NASIR ALLENRB SORET
★3—00%——
28
CHAVEL WILLIAMSRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL27PERF43RET56NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
CHAUNCY COBBWR SERET
★3—00%+6—
3
HUNTER SUMMERSWR SERET
★3★300%-12HELD
81
DALLAS BOOZERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
10
JAYLEN BONELLIWR SERET
UNR★300%-30EMERGED
16
JOSHUA BURRELLTE SEPORTAL · FURMAN
★3★300%—HELD
17
JABARI BUSHTE JURET
★3—00%-16—
0
NANA BURRISWR SERET
UNR★300%-19EMERGED
19
JADEN HAMMTE SEPORTAL · KANSAS
★3★300%—HELD
11
TYLER LITTLETE SERET
★3—00%-29—
84
REED LINDERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
18
ROMEL STEVENSWR SORET
★3—00%——
14
ANDRE FEASTWR SORET
★3—00%——
13
BOSKI BARRETTWR JUPORTAL · VANDERBILT
★3★300%—HELD
82
EZRA BURGESSTE JURET
UNR—00%——
15
ANDREW JONESWR SORET
UNR—00%——
80
KENA REGOWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
41
COLEMAN PARMERTE SORET
UNR—00%——
89
ANDREW STATENTE SORET
UNR—00%——
88
DAWSON MCFADINTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
21
DESHAUN FEDDWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
85
BRANDON GOLIDAYWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL—TAL30PERF52RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL63TAL38PERF63RET7n=5 · 7 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸LB33TAL58PERF33RET7n=3 · 11 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DB44TAL32PERF44RET60n=8 · 7 METRICS · 32 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TAVON BELLHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
PAUL RISPERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DESHAUN FEDDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TY'LAN FORTUNEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KENA REGOHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KEANDRE GIBSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DALLAS BOOZERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BRANDON GOLIDAYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAKOHRI JOHNSONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
SOLOMON BAGGETTHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MANASSE ITETEFLORIDA STATEIOL★4★3
TREY OWENSTEXASQB★4★3
JOSHUA OFORNC STATELB★3★3
MAKAI SHAHIDYOUNGSTOWN STATESUNR★3
JEREMY ST-HILAIREVANDERBILTQB★3★3
TYELAND COLEMANFLORIDA STATEDLUNR★3
BOSKI BARRETTVANDERBILTWR★3★3
AJ THOMASMCNEESEEDGE★3★3
SULTAN BADMUSTEMPLEEDGEUNR★3
TRE STEVENSLAFAYETTELBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAYLEN RAYNORIOWA STATEQBUNR★3
AARON ALEXANDERNORTH TEXASLB★3★3
TYLER FORTENBERRYIOWA STATETEUNR★3
CODY SIGLERAUBURNDLUNR★3
JAVANTE MACKEYTEXAS STATELB★3★3
DREW COLLINSSOUTH CAROLINADE★3★3
JA'QUEZ CROSSAPP STATERB★3★3
KAMERON THOMASNORTHWESTERN STATERBUNRUNR
JORDAN SAMPLETEXAS STATELB★3★3
JOSH STONESOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATECB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES43%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS36%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#85NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8470COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2538 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST39% BACK39th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG39% BACK39th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST60%60th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE