SAT 15:30 ET|JORDAN-HARE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP42|O/U53.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
3-9
45
52
1
53%
7
41
7.3
—
+39.0
HOME
59
6-7
88
42
77
79%
24
92
46.3
—
-39.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALMASS14—AUB59
CLOSED AUB -39.0TOTAL 53.5AUB COVERED · 73 POINTS · OVER
MASS
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
AUB
MASS
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
AUB
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=45
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADAUB -39.0
IMPLIED — MASS7.3
IMPLIED — AUB46.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
48FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 45-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
MASSRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.7
MASSACHUSETTS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
AUBRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
AUBURN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMASSACHUSETTSAUBURN2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE67%Josiah JohnsonPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron Sullivan-BrownWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaret PallottaTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB52%Ellis MerriweatherRB · 52% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB39%Josh WallacePORTAL · MICHIGAN · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTanner DavisDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavon BattenDB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB34%Jalen MackieLB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL28%Marcus CushnieDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVic AlobwedePORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB22%Garrett DzuroQB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL22%Max LongmanPORTAL · INDIANA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier GrahamOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEMark Pope · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEMatt Smith · PORTAL ★3 · DUKEChristian Wells · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEREFILLED
RBJalen John · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAJackson Paradis · PORTAL ★3 · BUFFALOREFILLED
DBSteven Ortiz · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAJalen Harrell · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIJerrod Cameron · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBTyler Martin · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAJerry Roberts · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAJyree Roberts · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLShambre Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJB Brown · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONADonovan Dyson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBTaisun Phommachanh · PORTAL ★2 · GEORGIA TECHAhmad Haston · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLBrandon MacKinnon · PORTAL ★2 · NORTHERN ILLINOISParris Heath · PORTAL ★3 · UALBANYMarcellus Anderson · PORTAL · SAGINAW VALLEY STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MASSACHUSETTS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
61.178 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
53.352 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
65.684 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB37378154 OF 5 GRADED
RB3838669773 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE444420551812 OF 18 GRADED
OL45452179157 OF 15 GRADED
DL353535831915 OF 19 GRADED
LB252524681915 OF 19 GRADED
DB494952681715 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE45th45
BLUE-CHIP RATIO13%60
RECRUITING CLASS#127 · 0/7 BC5
CLASS RANK TREND-10 · 3 CYCLES30
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 21 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX41%75
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
AUBHUGH FREEZEFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MASSDON BROWN2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
66
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1919
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMASS OFFENSEAUB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMASSACHUSETTS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEAUBURN DEFENSE MASS QUARTERBACKSn=599% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS35% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMASSACHUSETTS OFFENSEFRONT-7AUBURN DEFENSE MASS OFFENSIVE LINEn=1521% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS59% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMASSACHUSETTS OFFENSEFRONT-7AUBURN DEFENSE MASS RUNNING BACKSn=73% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS58% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556038%39%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457346%33%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMASSACHUSETTS OFFENSESECONDARYAUBURN DEFENSE MASS PASS CATCHERSn=1845% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM16% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MASS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+37
+14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MASS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MASS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.0%
66.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.9%
55.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.4%
3.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MASS, ORANGE = AUB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE