SAT 15:30 ET|CAMP RANDALL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP71|O/U55.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
3-9
8
8
45
57%
84
13
15.5
—
+24.0
HOME
38
7-6
79
41
72
57%
77
52
39.5
—
-24.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALBUF17—WIS38
CLOSED WIS -24.0TOTAL 55.0BUF COVERED · 55 POINTS · PUSH
BUF
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
WIS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=45
MARKET
TOTAL55.0
SPREADWIS -24.0
IMPLIED — BUF15.5
IMPLIED — WIS39.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
42FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT11 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 11 positions on a 45-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
BUFRECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.1-7.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.5
BUFFALO won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WISRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.9
WISCONSIN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBUFFALOWISCONSIN2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE82%Robbie MangasTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuian WilliamsWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin MarshallWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB58%Jahmin MuseS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeyshawn CobbPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah KingCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB46%James PattersonLB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL42%Desmond BessentOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack HaszPORTAL · UNLV · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL32%Ibrahim KanteDE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamian JacksonDE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB6%Tajay AhmedRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB0%Matt MyersQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEZion Carter · PORTAL ★3 · DARTMOUTHJacob Orlando · PORTAL ★3 · MASSACHUSETTSDarrell Harding · PORTAL ★2 · DUKE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBDemetrius Harris · PORTAL ★3 · CORNELLD'Andre Greeley · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATECharles McCartherens · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBJoe Andreessen · PORTAL ★3 · BRYANTDion Crawford · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLNick Beans · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAME COLLEGEHenry Tabansi · SIGNEEPARTIAL
DLJyaire Stevens · PORTAL ★3 · LAFAYETTEMitch Viviano · SIGNEE ★3Junior Poyser · SIGNEE ★2REFILLED
RBJamari Ford · SIGNEE ★3Lamar Sperling · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBCJ Ogbonna · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEMason Cumbie · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BUFFALO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.116 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
29.78 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.346 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3939759572 OF 7 GRADED
RB2525148475 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE232357502112 OF 21 GRADED
OL434327871510 OF 15 GRADED
DL35351984189 OF 18 GRADED
LB4343384486 OF 8 GRADED
DB454546612312 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE8th8
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#84 · 0/14 BC38
CLASS RANK TREND+14 · 3 CYCLES78
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 9 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX34%40
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WISLUKE FICKELLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2828
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BUFMAURICE LINGUIST3TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9393
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBUF OFFENSEWIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBUFFALO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEWISCONSIN DEFENSE BUF QUARTERBACKSn=75% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBUFFALO OFFENSEFRONT-7WISCONSIN DEFENSE BUF OFFENSIVE LINEn=1513% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS8% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBUFFALO OFFENSEFRONT-7WISCONSIN DEFENSE BUF RUNNING BACKSn=716% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS8% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554293%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBUFFALO OFFENSESECONDARYWISCONSIN DEFENSE BUF PASS CATCHERSn=2150% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM25% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−6
+1
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.8%
55.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS63.7%
72.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BUF, ORANGE = WIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE